Even before Tuesday’s primary votes are counted, North Carolina is gearing up for what is expected to be the most pivotal and expensive governor’s race in the country this fall.
Leading in both polls and fundraising are Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who are widely expected to advance to the general election to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.
The stakes are high for North Carolina, where Republicans already control the state Legislature. A win in the governor’s race would give them a trifecta, further solidifying their hold on power.
North Carolina Indigenes Amid Governor’s Race (Credits: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
Nationally, the race is significant as well. Of the 11 gubernatorial elections happening this year, only North Carolina and New Hampshire are considered presidential battleground states.
However, North Carolina’s race is expected to attract the most attention from national party figures and groups due to its larger size and the fact that New Hampshire voters elect a governor every two years, compared to North Carolina’s four-year cycle.
The expected matchup between Stein and Robinson is likely to reflect the themes of the national 2024 campaign. Republicans are expected to tie Stein to President Joe Biden, whose approval ratings in the state are low.
Democrats, on the other hand, are likely to portray Robinson as an extremist on issues such as reproductive rights, education, and LGBTQ rights, citing his controversial public statements over the years.
North Carolina’s history of electing Democratic governors despite its tendency to vote Republican in presidential elections adds an element of unpredictability to the race. According to Gary Pearce, a Democratic strategist in the state, “The funny thing about North Carolina is that we elect Democratic governors.”
