The latest Emerson College Polling reveals a tight race for the November presidential election. It shows 46% of voters backing former President Donald Trump, 45% supporting President Joe Biden, and 8% undecided. When those undecided are nudged for a preference, Trump’s support climbs to 51%, with Biden closely behind at 49%.
Introducing third-party candidates into the mix slightly shifts the numbers: Trump gets 43%, Biden 42%, with Robert Kennedy Jr. at 8%, and both Cornel West and Jill Stein securing 1% each; 6% remain undecided.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, points out an unexpected twist: while Trump holds a slight lead among registered voters, Biden inches ahead among those deemed very likely to vote, 51% to 49%.
Donald and Biden (Credits: NBC News)
This observation challenges the idea that Trump’s base might be more motivated and marks the first time this cycle that Emerson has included a general election voting intention question.
Among independent voters, Trump leads with 44%, Biden follows with 41%, and 14% are undecided. With third-party candidates in consideration, the figures adjust to 40% for Trump, 37% for Biden, and 10% for Kennedy.
Despite personal preferences, 48% of voters anticipate Trump winning the presidency, against 45% foreseeing a Biden victory. President Biden’s current job approval rating is 40%, with a 51% disapproval rate and 9% feeling neutral.
Public figures’ favorability ratings also came under scrutiny, showing Biden with 46% favorability against 54% unfavorable. Trump fares slightly better with 48% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Other figures like Kamala Harris, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and others also had their favorability assessed, with varying degrees of public familiarity.
Biden VS Trump (Credits: CNN)
When it comes to congressional support, 46% lean towards the Democratic candidate, and 45% favor the Republican, leaving 9% undecided. Economic concerns dominate the voters’ priority list at 35%, followed by immigration, threats to democracy, healthcare, and other issues.
The poll also tapped into cultural preferences, asking voters to pick “America’s sport.” Football leads at 49%, with baseball at 26% and other sports trailing.
Regarding the NCAA March Madness basketball tournament, most voters have tuned in, with Iowa being a favorite in the Women’s Final Four according to regional breakdowns.
In the Men’s Final Four, preferences are more varied, with NC State being a common choice among both Biden and Trump voters. Voters’ perceptions of measles as a public health threat vary, with 50% viewing it as a major or moderate threat.
This national survey, conducted over April 2-3, 2024, involved 1,438 registered voters and utilized a mix of landline IVR and online panels for data collection. The results, with a credibility interval of +/- 2.5 percentage points, offer a snapshot of current voter sentiment and issues of interest as the election draws nearer.
