The latest Harvard Youth Poll, released Thursday, indicates that while President Joe Biden still leads among young voters, former President Donald Trump is gaining ground, narrowing the gap between them.
According to the poll, Biden holds a 45% to 37% lead over Trump among voters aged 18-29, with 16% remaining undecided. This margin is particularly smaller than during the 2020 election, where Biden led Trump by 23 percentage points.
Conducted from March 14-21, the nationwide survey polled 2,010 Americans aged 18 to 29, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Biden (Credits: Reuters)
Biden’s lead widens when considering only registered and likely voters, where he holds a 19-point advantage among voters under 30 who are likely to vote. However, this lead is still smaller than his 30-point advantage among likely young voters four years ago.
While Biden maintains serious leads among nonwhite voters (43 points) and women (33 points), his margins are narrower in other key demographics. Among likely voters with a college degree, Biden leads Trump by 47 points, but only by 23 points among college students.
Trump’s support among his younger voters appears more enthusiastic, with over 75% of Trump supporters expressing enthusiastic support compared to 44% for Biden.
John Della Volpe, polling director for the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, noted that economic issues, particularly housing concerns, are top priorities for young voters, with a pronounced gender gap in political preferences.
President Biden (Credits: Sun Sentinel)
The survey also highlights that Biden’s lead among young adults aged 25-29 is greater than among those aged 18-24. Additionally, Biden’s final lead increases by 10 points among all young adults if Trump is convicted in any of his criminal trials.
The poll indicates that third-party candidates could further affect Biden’s margins, with him still winning the youth vote if other candidates remain on the ballot, albeit by a narrower margin.
Biden’s job approval rating among younger adults stands at 31%, and their views on the Israel-Gaza conflict could also impact his polling numbers, with a majority supporting a permanent cease-fire in Gaza and a remarkable proportion opposing Israel’s response to the Hamas incursion.
