Despite a brief poll bump following the State of the Union address, President Biden is trailing Donald Trump in the national polls and lagging in key battleground states.
The Democratic party’s attempts to spin the situation as a close race or even a lead for Biden are not supported by the numbers. Biden’s favorability ratings are around minus 15 points, and the Right Track/Wrong Direction deficit is nearly 40 points. Democrats are struggling to celebrate an approval percentage of just 43 percent.
Biden also faces erosion in traditional Democratic strongholds, including among Black and Hispanic voters. While predictions of Trump gaining 25 percent of the Black vote or winning Hispanics may be overly optimistic, the trend is clear: Biden is losing ground with these critical demographics.
Biden and Trump (Credits: CNN)
Inflation and immigration are major concerns for voters, and Biden’s handling of these issues costs him dearly. His approval ratings on inflation are particularly dire, with a 31 percent approve rating vs. 62 percent disapprove rating.
The Democratic response to these challenges has been inadequate, relying on excess profits/reflation blame-shifting and telling the public they are wrong. Neither of these tactics is a long-term solution, and there is little evidence that Team Biden has a real plan to address the issues.
Taxing the rich and taking potshots at corporate America may give the Biden campaign a brief boost, but it does nothing to help middle-class and working-class voters make ends meet.
Immigration is another problem area for Biden, with his approvals worse on this issue than his all in all numbers, including among Hispanics and Black voters. While abortion may be a winning issue for Democrats, immigration could be the counterbalance that promotes turnout for Republicans.
Donald Trump vs. Biden (Credits: NBC News)
Independents and Hispanics are more concerned about immigration than abortion, and Biden appears to have no plan to address this critical issue. Biden’s non-policy on inflation and immigration leaves him rudderless on the top two issues for the public.
The Democratic party’s reliance on a “not Trump” campaign strategy is unlikely to be enough to save Biden, especially given the steady erosion of Black and Hispanic voter support for Democrats since 2012. With no plan to address the country’s critical issues, Biden is flailing and failing, and the 2024 presidential election should not be close.
