After months of delay, the long-awaited US military aid package has finally arrived in Kyiv, Ukraine. The $95 billion aid bill, passed with bipartisan support, includes $61 billion for Ukraine’s military efforts.
While this assistance will help Ukraine halt the Russian advance and potentially reverse some recent gains, it is crucial to acknowledge that it will not enable Ukraine to recapture vast territories occupied by Russia in 2022.
Last summer’s Ukrainian military offensive, which aimed to retake these territories, ended in disappointment. Despite Western training and equipment, the Ukrainians suffered heavy losses, including 20% of their equipment and thousands of soldiers.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Credits: 90.5 WESA)
The Russian army, adept at defensive warfare, inflicted serious damage behind fortified lines, minefields, and artillery support.
Ukrainian mistakes compounded the effectiveness of Russian tactics. Divided forces, inexperience, and depletion of munitions stocks hindered their success. The 2023 offensive not only achieved little but also left Ukraine vulnerable to further Russian advances.
The delay in US aid was partly due to far-right American politicians, led by the “Freedom Caucus,” who blocked funding for six months. However, President Biden’s intervention and detailed intelligence briefings eventually secured the aid package, albeit with more Democratic than Republican votes.
The current aid package will sustain Ukraine’s military through 2023, but further funding is uncertain, especially given Republican vows to block future supplements. This uncertainty emphasizes the need for Ukraine to use resources wisely.
The Pentagon’s impressive list of supplied weapons, including artillery shells, anti-aircraft missiles, and Javelin anti-tank missiles, is best suited for defensive warfare.
Conspicuously absent are Abrams Tanks, which proved vulnerable to Russian drones. Ukraine’s failure to employ a “combined arms approach” and its struggles with draft dodging and corruption further complicate its military efforts.
Volodymyr Zelensky (Credits: San Diego Union-Tribune)
Given these challenges, Ukraine should focus on holding its current territory rather than attempting to liberate lost lands. Rebuilding energy infrastructure and continuing military training and equipment are crucial.
The US and NATO allies must also temper expectations, acknowledging that Ukraine’s goals may need to shift from complete victory to sustainable defense.
Continued Western support is vital, as Ukraine’s survival depends on it. Encouraging Ukraine to believe it can defeat Russia and recapture all territory is unrealistic and potentially harmful. Instead, the focus should be on providing sustained military aid and helping Ukraine develop a robust defense strategy.
