NATO has reportedly identified two potential “red lines” that could trigger direct intervention in the war in Ukraine, according to Italian news agency Repubblica.
While emphasizing that no operational plans are currently in place for troop deployment, these “red lines” represent hypothetical scenarios that could lead to extraordinary measures in response to third-party involvement or military provocations.
NATO (Credits: Brittanica)
The first “red line” pertains to direct or indirect involvement by a third party, such as Belarus, which could create a corridor between Ukraine and Belarus in northwestern Ukraine. This scenario, considered likely by several analysts, would draw Minsk into the war and potentially activate NATO’s defense in favor of Ukraine.
The second “red line” involves military provocations against the Baltic States, Poland, or Moldova, such as a deliberate attack or a military strike to test Western reaction. This could be an attempt to exploit perceived weakness during the election season in Europe and the United States, but NATO has made it clear that it will not tolerate such aggression.
NATO (Credits: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung)
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has acknowledged the possibility of a prolonged war in Ukraine, with two potential scenarios: either NATO allies provide assistance to Ukraine, leading to regained territory, or the situation becomes even more dangerous.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian intelligence has warned that Russia could capture the Baltic countries within a week, although a NATO response would take longer, potentially up to a decade.
These hypothetical scenarios highlight the challenge and volatile nature of the ongoing conflict, emphasizing the need for continued vigilance and cooperation among NATO allies to address potential threats and maintain regional stability.
