In 1977, Ronald Reagan’s clarity on the Cold War’s outcome resonated with the times. Today, the question of how the war in Ukraine ends remains uncertain.
Despite consultations with European and Middle Eastern leaders, a consensus emerges: Ukraine ceding territory to Russia, not total victory, is the likely outcome.
War in Ukraine
The West has navigated a delicate balancing act, avoiding appeasement and escalation. Military support and economic sanctions have conveyed a clear message to Russia, with Beijing also taking note. However, the risk of escalation remains, and recent moves by France and the US may reinforce a stalemate rather than lead to Russian defeat.
Ukraine likely lacks the manpower to expel Russian forces, and Western support, though helpful, cannot drive the Russians out without a full-scale intervention.
The expected outcome is a stalemate, yet calls for a ceasefire or peace talks are absent. The next skirmish will likely cement the stalemate, with a nonzero possibility of escalation and further human suffering.
Historically, peace talks begin when both sides see a better outcome at the negotiating table. The recent moves by France and the US may aim to change Russia’s calculations, but it remains unclear if Ukraine is being convinced of the same.
The choices in Ukraine are between a peace involving territorial concessions, complete collapse, permanent war, or escalation. The first option appears to be the least bad choice.
