Vice President Kamala Harris is experiencing significant momentum as she prepares to announce her running mate this week. A recent national poll from UMass Amherst indicates that Harris has gained a three-point lead over former President Donald Trump, with the poll showing Harris at 46 percent and Trump at 43 percent.
This poll, conducted from July 29 to August 1, comes with a margin of error of 3.8 percent, marking a notable shift from January when Trump led President Biden in a similar poll.
The shift in Democratic support towards Harris follows President Biden’s decision to not seek re-election, a move that initially sparked extensive debate among Democrats. Tatishe Nteta, a political science professor at UMass Amherst, highlighted that Harris’s emergence as the leading candidate confirms the critics’ perspective on Biden’s decision.
Harris has notably improved Biden’s standings among key demographics, including a 13-point increase among Latino voters, a 17-point rise among independents, and a 14-point boost among young voters aged 18 to 29.
Donald Trump
The enthusiasm within the Democratic Party has surged with Harris’s candidacy. The UMass poll reports that 66 percent of Democrats feel more enthusiastic about voting with Harris leading the ticket against Trump.
Despite this enthusiasm, the poll also reveals that Trump is viewed as more reliable on several key issues, including the economy, crime, and immigration. Conversely, Harris is seen as the better candidate on issues such as climate change, reproductive rights, education, and healthcare, with voters equally divided on foreign policy.
As Harris narrows down her choice for a running mate, she is reportedly considering Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. However, the UMass poll indicates that a significant portion of voters, about 52 percent, are uncertain about who should be her vice-presidential pick. Arizona Senator Mark Kelly emerged as the most popular choice among those surveyed, followed by Shapiro and Walz.
Once Harris announces her running mate, she plans to embark on a five-day, seven-city campaign tour through key battleground states.
Alexander Theodoridis, associate professor of political science at UMass Amherst, notes that Harris has improved Biden’s standings across various demographics, especially among independents and young voters. He cautions, however, that the political landscape can change rapidly, emphasizing the critical three months leading up to Election Day.
