Vice President Kamala Harris has narrowed the lead of former President Donald Trump in several critical battleground states as the election approaches, according to a new survey. Published on Saturday by The New York Times/Siena College, the poll reveals Harris is now ahead of Trump in Arizona (50% to 45%) and North Carolina (49% to 47%). This shift has prompted her campaign to see North Carolina as a viable target, reversing the previous strong lead Trump held over former President Biden.
In Nevada and Georgia, Harris has also made considerable gains, though Trump still holds a slight advantage—48% to 47% in Nevada and 50% to 46% in Georgia. The survey indicates a tie at 48% when averaging the results from these four Sun Belt states. Winning at least one of these states, along with key Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, is crucial for securing the presidency.
Harris’s campaign shifts focus to North Carolina after overtaking Trump, signaling a new battleground strategy
Since President Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris last month, her position in national polls has strengthened. Harris officially became the Democratic nominee earlier this month and will formally accept the nomination alongside Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz at the Democratic National Convention next week.
A previous poll by Times/Siena found Harris leading Trump by four points in Rust Belt states, contrasting with earlier leads for Trump before Biden’s departure. The recent poll marks a remarkable improvement from May when Trump led Biden by 50% to 41% in key states such as Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
The Cook Political Report has recently shifted Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada from “lean Republican” to “toss-up,” reflecting Harris’s growing momentum. Democratic enthusiasm has also surged, with 85% of Democrats now expressing excitement about Harris’s candidacy, an outstanding increase from earlier in the year.
Harris’s effective use of social media, particularly TikTok, has further strengthened her campaign, showing a 13-point lead over Trump among TikTok users in the battleground states. This is a stark contrast to Biden’s previous three-point lead in the same demographic. Harris has gained more support among Black and Latino voters, while Trump continues to receive substantial backing from white voters without a college degree in these states.
Support for third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has halved since May, averaging only 4% across the four states, indicating his campaign no longer affects the contest between Trump and Harris.
The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling index shows Trump leading Harris by 1.8 percentage points. The Times/Siena poll surveyed 2,670 registered voters from August 8-15, with margins of error of 4.4 percentage points for Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, and 4.2 percentage points for North Carolina.
