A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania survey reveals that Former President Trump narrowly leads Vice President Harris in the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania. The poll indicates Trump is ahead by 1 percentage point among likely voters, with a split of 49 percent to 48 percent. This lead slightly increases to 2 points when undecided voters are pushed to make a choice, showing Trump at 51 percent compared to Harris’s 49 percent.
Both margins fall within the poll’s 3-point margin of error. When third-party candidates are factored in, Trump and Harris are tied at 47 percent each, while independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garners 3 percent. Other third-party candidates, including independent Cornel West, receive less than 0.3 percent.
Trump and Harris neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania, poll shows 1-point Trump advantage
The survey highlights the tight competition for Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes, a state that shifted from red to blue between the 2016 and 2020 elections. Trump has a slight edge among independents, leading by 3 points in a two-person race, and holds substantial support among voters aged 50 to 69 and those 70 and older. Harris excels with young voters and union members, leading seriously in these groups.
Earlier this week, a Quinnipiac University poll showed Harris ahead of Trump by 3 points in both one-on-one and multi-candidate scenarios, buoyed by strong support among women. Despite being slightly behind in this latest Emerson poll, Harris’s position has improved from last month’s survey, where Trump led by 6 points.
