As the 2024 presidential election approaches, Donald Trump is narrowing the gap against Kamala Harris, who recently became the Democratic candidate following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race.
Recent data reveals that Trump’s probability of winning has surged to 47%—the highest since mid-August—while Harris’s chances have dropped to 53%, down from 64% in mid-September, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election simulator.
Since taking over as the Democratic nominee at the end of July, Harris initially enjoyed a strong lead, frequently ahead by up to seven points in national polls.
The dynamics of the race shifted significantly after Biden’s exit, as Harris was expected to outperform Trump based on earlier polling. FiveThirtyEight indicated that she was projected to win since early August, but recent surveys reveal a concerning trend for her campaign.
Specifically, the ActiVote poll from October 3-8 showed Trump leading Harris by 1.2 points nationally, marking a notable change from the previous month when she led by 5.4 points. This October poll is the first to show Trump in the lead since late September, reflecting a tightening race as Election Day draws near.
Kamala Harris
Polling results from key swing states are also shifting in Trump’s favor. Notably, RealClearPolitics’ tracker indicated that Michigan has flipped to Trump, with him leading by half a point for the first time since late July.
Additionally, Quinnipiac University’s polling showed Trump ahead by 4 points in Michigan and 2 points in Wisconsin, where Harris had previously maintained a lead. Although Harris still holds a slight advantage in Pennsylvania, recent surveys suggest that her support in these pivotal states is dwindling, leading to concerns about her campaign’s momentum.
Despite the tightening race, some polls indicate that the Harris campaign may still be gaining ground. The latest Cygnal poll, conducted in early October, showed her leading Trump by 3.3 points, a modest improvement from previous polls in August and September.
Meanwhile, Morning Consult’s survey placed her 6 points ahead, illustrating that while the national lead is fluctuating, Harris still holds competitive numbers against Trump. According to FiveThirtyEight’s tracker, she maintains a narrow national lead of approximately 2.6 to 3 points.
Ultimately, the outcome of the election will hinge on performance in swing states, where both candidates face fierce competition. Harris needs to secure 44 electoral votes from toss-up states, while Trump requires 51. If Harris wins in key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, she could potentially achieve the electoral majority needed for victory.
However, forecasts from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics suggest a divided outcome, with the former predicting a narrow win for Harris and the latter showing Trump with a substantial lead in overall Electoral College votes. This underscores the uncertainty and volatility as the election draws closer, with both candidates vying for crucial support in battleground areas.
