A recent New York Times/Siena College poll indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is experiencing lower support among Black voters compared to the backing Joe Biden received during the 2020 presidential election. The poll reveals that 78 percent of Black voters intend to vote for Harris in the upcoming election, with 15 percent leaning toward Republican nominee Donald Trump.
While Harris’s current support marks an increase from the 74 percent of Black voters who backed Biden before he withdrew from the race, it significantly lags behind the 90 percent support Biden garnered in his successful campaign against Trump.
The political environment for the 2024 presidential election appears highly competitive, with election analysis platform FiveThirtyEight giving Harris a 53 percent chance of winning, compared to 47 percent for Trump.
Despite her position as the first Black woman potentially elected to the presidency, Harris seems to struggle in attracting non-white voters, particularly Hispanic voters, where her support stands at 56 percent—down from Biden’s 59 percent in 2020. These shifts in voter support could impact her overall campaign strategy as she attempts to rally diverse demographics.
Kamala Harris
The poll also highlights a notable gender gap within the Black voting population. Harris enjoys significantly higher support from Black women, with 83 percent indicating their intention to vote for her, compared to 12 percent for Trump.
In contrast, 70 percent of Black men support Harris, while 20 percent favor the GOP candidate. Conducted between September 29 and October 5 among 589 likely Black voters, the survey shows a margin of error of 2.4 points, reflecting the nuanced preferences within this voter demographic.
The findings suggest that 82 percent of Black voters hold a favorable view of Harris, contrasting sharply with the 17 percent favorable view of Trump. When asked which candidate “cares about people like you,” an overwhelming 81 percent of Black voters chose Harris, while only 8 percent selected Trump.
This indicates a strong perception of empathy and connection to the issues facing Black communities, despite the lower overall support compared to Biden’s 2020 performance.
Amid these dynamics, former President Barack Obama recently urged Black men to rally behind Harris, noting a lack of enthusiasm and turnout that mirrors earlier election cycles. He suggested that some Black men might be struggling with the idea of a woman president, potentially leading them to consider alternatives, including supporting Trump.
However, this assertion faced criticism from former Ohio State Senator Nina Turner, who contended that Obama’s comments unfairly stigmatized Black men, arguing that such targeted remarks are not made about other voting groups.
