In 1951, Samuel Lubell introduced the concept of “sun and moon” parties to describe political dynamics. The sun party is the dominant one, where key political issues are contested, while the moon party reflects the sun’s power. For two generations, the Democratic Party, led by Franklin D. Roosevelt, was the sun party. However, this shifted with Ronald Reagan’s rise, signaling the Republican Party’s dominance.
When Bill Clinton declared “the era of big government is over,” he was recognizing the GOP’s emerging influence, but by the early 2000s, no party held clear dominance, marking a shift to a “two moons” era, where both parties struggled to assert themselves as the majority.
This “two moons” situation was increasingly accepted as normal by voters and politicians alike, with neither party able to firmly establish a lasting majority. George W. Bush initially tried to run as a Sun Party candidate in 2000 but narrowly won.
His 2004 reelection capitalized on the polarized two-moon environment by emphasizing culture wars, especially around gay marriage and wartime patriotism, to mobilize his base. The now-common red-versus-blue political rhetoric deepened this divide, turning partisanship into a stronger part of voters’ identities and accelerating polarization.
Barack Obama’s 2008 election momentarily obscured the two-moon dynamic because of his unique appeal and Bush’s unpopularity. Obama won reelection in 2012 by focusing on a base-turnout strategy, similar to Bush, but appealing to younger and minority voters.
Donald Trump
In 2016, Donald Trump used the same approach but targeted low-propensity white, non-college-educated voters. This strategy, of energizing the base rather than appealing to the center, has led to both parties focusing on outraging their opposition, which helps solidify support within their base but deepens polarization.
The polarization intensified under Trump, whose administration prioritized keeping his base engaged through inflammatory rhetoric and actions that enraged opponents. This approach, rooted in campaign strategies, translated into governance, where the focus on base voters left moderate or opposition voters largely ignored.
In 2020, Joe Biden presented himself as a “sun party” candidate, promising normalcy and winning over voters tired of Trump’s chaos. However, once in office, Biden shifted to a more transformative agenda, frustrating those who expected a return to moderation.
Looking at the broader picture, the two-moon political dynamic has destabilized U.S. politics, with both parties chasing short-term gains by catering to their base while alienating the middle. This results in a constant back-and-forth in control of the White House and Congress.
Candidates like Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are now vying for votes in completely different voter universes, reflecting how far apart the two parties have drifted. With such intense polarization, the political system remains locked in a two-moon phase, with no dominant sun party on the horizon.
