U.S. intelligence officials have expressed growing concerns that Russia and Iran may attempt to incite violence or disruptive protests in the U.S. following the upcoming election. An unclassified assessment released by the intelligence community indicates that Russian actors are actively considering a range of influence operations designed to coincide with the election.
These efforts aim not only to undermine the legitimacy of the electoral process but also to instigate violence, regardless of the election’s outcome. The intelligence community emphasizes that such tactics are part of a broader strategy to erode trust in American democracy.
In addition to Russia, the intelligence assessment points to Iran’s potential role in creating unrest. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has highlighted Iran’s previous efforts to influence American perceptions, particularly during the 2020 elections. Notably, Iran was accused of running a disinformation campaign that included threats against U.S. election officials.
The current assessment warns that Iran might repeat similar tactics post-election to provoke violence, echoing its actions from December 2020, which involved the establishment of a website featuring death threats against election officials.
U.S. Intelligence Warns of Potential Russian and Iranian Influence Efforts to Incite Post-Election Violence
The intelligence community has consistently flagged the propaganda operations of three U.S. adversaries—Russia, Iran, and China—aimed at undermining the democratic process. Each country has different presidential preferences, with Russia favoring former President Donald Trump and Iran showing support for Vice President Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, China’s stance remains ambiguous.
While these nations deny involvement in disinformation campaigns, there have been notable responses from Russian state media, which sarcastically acknowledged their role as tools of the Kremlin. The lack of comments from Iranian and Chinese officials reflects their reluctance to engage with these accusations.
A declassified memo from October 8 also highlights the preparedness of these nations to leverage influence in the U.S. election following election day. Lessons learned from the previous election cycle indicate that these actors are likely to conduct operations aimed at discrediting American democracy, continuing until the inauguration.
Iran, in particular, is identified as trying to incite societal discord and diminish trust in the electoral process, regardless of the winner, with intelligence officials expressing heightened concern about potential violence and protests in the aftermath of the election.
In a media briefing, an intelligence official articulated specific worries regarding Russia’s potential to encourage unrest in protests following the election results. They suggested that foreign adversaries may exploit perceived vulnerabilities during the transition period, particularly between the election certification and inauguration.
The official noted that Russia’s aggressive strategies could be intensified if Harris were to win, underscoring that Moscow would likely seek to undermine the legitimacy of the presidency of any candidate they did not favor. Furthermore, the intelligence community has identified evidence of Russian manipulation in the media, reinforcing concerns about their influence operations in the current election cycle.
