In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, nearly 80 million people voted early, with tens of millions more voting on election day. The outcome of the race is expected to depend on results from seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and North Carolina.
The election is considered highly competitive, with polling indicating it could be a coinflip. The focus is on these battleground states, especially those that flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020. Control of Congress, including the Senate and the House, is also in play, with important races happening nationwide.
Axios’ live coverage began as the first polls closed at 6 pm ET, with Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio following shortly after. Pennsylvania, a critical state, closed voting at 8 pm ET, while Arizona and Nevada had the latest closures at 10 pm ET.
The time it takes to count ballots varies by state, meaning some results may not be available immediately. Harris’ campaign expects near-complete results from Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina on election night, but Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada may take longer to count and report results.
Given how close the race is, the winner may not be determined by the end of election night. If the race remains tight, it could take several days to finalize results.
Key Battleground States Set to Determine the Outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Trump is expected to claim victory on election night if he’s leading, though his allies have already suggested he could lose only through voter fraud—a claim with no basis in fact. Harris’ campaign will be closely monitoring early returns in key counties that have been reliable indicators of broader state trends in the past.
Several counties in swing states are key to understanding the overall direction of the race. In Michigan, Saginaw County flipped to Trump in 2016 but Biden narrowly won it in 2020, so its results could reveal Harris’ ability to maintain Biden’s support among working-class white voters.
Baldwin County in Georgia and Northampton County in Pennsylvania will be closely watched for insights into the enthusiasm of Black voters and college students. If Virginia is called quickly for Harris, it could signal confidence in her campaign, though Trump might lead early in rural counties, which does not necessarily mean a permanent result.
Voter turnout is expected to play a decisive role in determining the winner. Historically, high turnout has favored Democrats, but this year is more uncertain. Harris leads among older, college-educated voters, while Trump is hoping for higher turnout from younger, less-educated men, who tend to vote at lower rates.
Black voter turnout in cities like Detroit, Atlanta, and Philadelphia could be crucial for Harris. Additionally, Gen Z voters, who overwhelmingly support Democrats, could make a difference, though their turnout levels are unpredictable compared to previous elections. The final result will depend on how these factors, along with the contested races for Congress, unfold.
