Immigration advocates are preparing for the potential impact of Trump’s second term, with his emphasis on mass deportation igniting both anxiety and anger within the movement.
Even before Trump’s decisive victory in the election, immigration advocacy was struggling with its identity. For years, the movement had relied heavily on Latino voters, yet neither political party seemed fully invested in their concerns.
“The movement has often been very inward-focused, concentrating largely on undocumented immigrants,” said Marielena Hincapié, a scholar at Cornell University’s Immigration Law and Policy Program. “When I led the National Immigration Law Center, I always pointed out that this issue extends beyond just Latinos.
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It involves Asian Pacific Islanders, Black immigrants, U.S. citizen spouses and children, and even business owners who rely on immigrant labor. It’s about all the people affected by immigration, not just those without papers.”
Since Trump’s first term, the scope of immigration advocacy has broadened, including the rise of Haitian American civil rights groups and stronger links between business interests and advocacy organizations like the American Business Immigration Coalition.
In 2023, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce urged Congress to advance bipartisan legislation addressing border security and immigration reform. “The outdated immigration system, with its inadequate number of worker visas, has long hindered businesses from meeting their workforce needs,” wrote Neil Bradley, Chief Policy Officer at the Chamber, in a letter to lawmakers.
However, despite calls from business groups, neither the divided Congress nor the Democratic-majority Congress during Biden’s first term made any substantial progress on immigration reform or border security, issues that have remained stagnant and ever-expanding in recent decades.
This stagnation has been a painful reality for a movement seeking to modernize and humanize immigration laws while addressing the growing detention-deportation complex. “Looking beyond the false binaries of this election cycle, we must confront the deep-rooted issues of migration, crime, and incarceration, which won’t simply disappear or be erased by political bravado,” said Todd Schulte, president of FWD.us, an organization that connects the tech sector with immigration advocacy.
Following Trump’s win, stocks for private prison companies surged, reflecting investors’ belief that his promises of mass deportations and internment could become a reality, thereby funneling taxpayer dollars into these companies.
By midday on Friday, GEO Group’s stock had risen nearly 75% over five days, while CoreCivic saw its stock increase by almost 68%. However, some remain doubtful about whether Trump will be able to—or truly desire to—create the infrastructure needed for mass deportations. “It’s unrealistic to think he could deport 20 million people,” said Rob Wilson, president of Employco USA.
Nonetheless, Wilson advises companies to prepare for possible ICE raids by ensuring that workers have proper documentation. “The labor market has shifted, and employers now have more leverage compared to when workers were scarce following COVID,” he said. “Employers can now be more selective in their hiring.”
This perspective, however, contrasts sharply with two key assumptions in immigration advocacy: the belief in the credibility of Trump’s threats and the idea that the U.S. economy heavily relies on undocumented labor.
According to Hincapié, Democrats have failed to effectively communicate the latter. “A simple message repeated could shift the conversation, highlighting that immigrants are integral to every part of American life—from agriculture and service jobs to rebuilding communities after disasters,” she said.
Despite Trump’s long-standing focus on immigration, his economic promises resonated more deeply with voters. Exit polls from NBC News indicated that 32% of voters in critical states viewed the economy as their top issue, while only 11% prioritized immigration. “Although the final picture of Latino voting is still unclear, it’s evident that economic concerns, such as inflation and the rising cost of essentials, influenced their choices,” noted Janet Murguía, president of UnidosUS.
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Of the 11% of voters who considered immigration their main concern, 90% voted for Republicans, and only 9% supported Democrats. This indicates that Vice President Harris’s message on immigration had less impact than her positions on abortion and defending democracy, which resonated with 34% of voters.
“Younger, Black, Brown, queer, and working-class communities called on Democrats to adopt pro-immigrant policies that align with the majority of young voters,” said Michelle Ming, political director of United We Dream Action. “By failing to embrace a bold agenda, Democrats missed the opportunity to counter the threat posed by an authoritarian figure like Trump.”
For decades, advocates have struggled to keep immigration issues central to Latino voters, many of whom have seen little legislative progress on the matter. While demographic divides, such as gender and age gaps, make Latino support uncertain, polls consistently show that most Latinos favor a path to citizenship.
“The key question is what Democrats could have done differently to prevent erosion of their support, particularly among Latino men,” wrote Maribel Hastings, a senior adviser for America’s Voice. “Democrats have long been warned not to take Latino support for granted and should engage with the community year-round, not just during elections.”
America’s Voice, a leading immigration advocacy group, was founded by Frank Sharry in 2008. The organization has continued to advocate for immigration reform, even as tensions between advocates and restrictionists have intensified, especially under a second Trump term.
However, immigrant advocates are focusing more on economic terms, recognizing that immigrants—both documented and undocumented—play a crucial role in the labor and consumer markets. They believe there is an opportunity to broaden their base, especially among those concerned with civil rights under Trump’s leadership.
“We know we haven’t fully tapped into a wider political constituency, including those who supported Trump for economic reasons or because of his strongman appeal,” said Hincapié. “We need to bring these people back into the conversation and help them understand how vital immigrants are to our society.”
The frustration within the immigration advocacy community is not just directed at Trump, but also at the voters who supported him. “Despite everything, people gave him a second term,” Hastings wrote. “Brace yourselves, because turbulence lies ahead.”
