Donald Trump’s election raised serious questions about his plans for the Middle East. Despite extensive campaigning, several critical aspects of his approach remain unclear. One major issue revolves around whether the U.S. will continue its policy of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
For over a decade, American leaders have acknowledged the risks of Iran acquiring such capabilities. While their methods varied, including diplomacy, sanctions, and military threats, the goal remained the same.
Trump’s administration unclear on its stance toward Iran’s nuclear ambitions
Trump and J.D. Vance have yet to firmly commit to this stance. Although Vance voiced support for Israeli action against Iran’s nuclear program during a debate, there has been no clear indication that the administration views halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions as a core American responsibility. The administration’s approach to this issue will have a profound impact on its broader Middle East policy.
Another concern centers on U.S. military engagement in the region. Trump’s decision to include Israel in U.S. Central Command during his first term enabled Arab-Israeli defense cooperation, later expanded under the Biden administration.
The collaborative response to recent missile and drone attacks on Israel highlighted the benefits of such partnerships. However, some of Trump’s advisors oppose ongoing military involvement, citing fears of escalation or a need to prioritize countering China.
Without sustained American leadership, these alliances could weaken, forcing Trump to decide whether to deepen U.S. involvement or scale back, risking the progress achieved. The question of supporting Israeli annexation of parts of the West Bank adds another layer of complexity.
The Abraham Accords, one of Trump’s key achievements, were partly made possible by Israel agreeing to pause annexation. With that freeze now lifted and Netanyahu’s government showing renewed interest, annexation could harm Israel’s relationships with Arab partners, Western nations, and segments of the U.S. population.
Trump’s position remains ambiguous, though appointing annexation proponent Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel suggests possible support. Saudi Arabia might mediate a peace agreement similar to the UAE’s, but their demands could be more extensive, creating additional challenges.
Decisions on these critical issues—preventing Iran from going nuclear, maintaining U.S. military presence to strengthen regional alliances, and addressing Israeli annexation—will shape the direction of Trump’s Middle East policy in a potential second term.
