Preventing a Chinese military takeover of Taiwan must be a top priority for the incoming Trump administration. Taiwan’s sovereignty has long been contested by China, which asserts that unification is inevitable.
Recently, China demonstrated its military dominance by conducting a large-scale exercise involving both the military and Coast Guard around Taiwan, signaling its claim of sovereignty and warning Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te against seeking independence.
These military maneuvers serve as intimidation tactics against the people of Taiwan. Since Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island in August 2022, Taiwan has faced increasing pressure from Chinese military actions.
Beijing intensifies its pressure on Taiwan with military exercises and diplomatic maneuvers
Simultaneously, Beijing has stepped up its diplomatic efforts through the U.N. and global relations, seeking to gain political legitimacy for its claim over Taiwan. While the U.S. and its allies have voiced criticism of China’s actions, they often overlook Beijing’s strategy: laying the groundwork for future military action to enforce its control over Taiwan.
During a recent show of force in the Taiwan Strait, China’s Ministry of National Defense revealed that the Chinese Coast Guard—part of the country’s armed forces—had conducted law enforcement patrols in Taiwan’s surrounding waters for the first time.
By sending three Coast Guard flotillas to conduct what they termed “lawful enforcement” of the One China principle, China challenged Taiwan’s authority over its territorial waters. These types of operations, such as boarding foreign vessels, are typically reserved for Taiwan’s own Coast Guard. This move was clearly intended to reinforce China’s claim to the island.
Before any military action is taken, China will likely assert its sovereignty over Taiwan publicly. By encircling Taiwan with law enforcement patrols and highlighting them in official announcements, China has signaled that its efforts to control Taiwan have entered a more aggressive and dangerous phase.
China has consistently adhered to the “One China principle,” claiming Taiwan as part of its territory and positioning the People’s Republic of China as the only legitimate government of all of China. This stance has been rejected by the U.S., which maintains a different approach to Taiwan’s status.
Since 1950, American policy has held that Taiwan’s sovereignty is undecided. Although phrased in diplomatic ambiguity to maintain stable relations, U.S. policy advocates for a peaceful resolution, with the decision left to the people of Taiwan and China, free from coercion or force.
Congress has also influenced U.S. policy through the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which encourages the provision of defensive weapons to Taiwan and considers any efforts to change Taiwan’s future by non-peaceful means, such as boycotts or embargoes, as a threat to regional peace. This policy, often referred to as America’s “One China policy,” is shared in principle by many other nations, even if their stance on Taiwan differs from Beijing’s.
The actions of China’s Coast Guard directly challenge American policy and create a dilemma for countries that want a peaceful resolution for Taiwan. If the international community accepts China’s claims as legitimate, it would implicitly endorse the “One China principle” and agree that Taiwan is under Chinese sovereignty.
Accepting this would legitimize any future Chinese use of force to take control of Taiwan. However, opposing China’s actions risks provoking a diplomatic conflict and destabilizing relations.
U.S. policy should prioritize de-escalation of tensions across the Taiwan Strait, even if it risks strain in the U.S.-China relationship. To this end, the U.S. should publicly condemn China’s actions as destabilizing, urge other like-minded nations to do the same, and reinforce its commitment to Taiwan’s defense through both military and diplomatic support.
Moreover, the U.S. must counter China’s efforts to misrepresent the meaning of U.N. General Assembly Resolution 2758, which Beijing has used to claim international support for its “One China principle.”
The 1971 resolution simply transferred the U.N. seat from the Republic of China (Taiwan) to the People’s Republic of China, with no mention of Taiwan’s status or sovereignty. China has falsely used this resolution, along with bilateral agreements, to claim that Taiwan’s status is settled in international law.
Beijing’s persistent campaign to solidify its claims through U.N. statements and military actions seeks to convince the world that Taiwan is part of China, and that any use of force to bring Taiwan under Chinese control would be justified. The Trump administration should actively refute these claims and challenge the diplomatic misrepresentations put forth by China.
Failing to robustly oppose China’s military and diplomatic strategies could suggest that the U.S. is willing to accept Taiwan being forced into China’s control. Hong Kong’s recent experience serves as a stark reminder of the dangers of complacency. Accepting Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan could undermine deterrence and increase the risk of a full-scale conflict.
