On Saturday, Nov. 9, Donald Trump secured Nevada’s six electoral votes, as projected by The Associated Press. This victory brings his total to 301 Electoral College votes, far surpassing the 270 needed to claim the presidency. At the time of the announcement, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris had accumulated 226 electoral votes.
Nevada was one of the last two swing states to be called, with the AP declaring Trump the winner after concluding that there were not enough remaining votes in key Democratic regions of the state to overcome his 46,000-vote lead. Results from Arizona are still pending.
As Nevada declares for Trump, political analysts reflect on the state’s bellwether history
Trump had already been declared the winner earlier after Wisconsin’s results pushed him across the threshold in the early hours of Wednesday, Nov. 5. In the context of the 2024 election, Nevada was one of seven critical swing states, alongside Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The outcome in each of these closely divided states played a crucial role in determining the eventual presidential victor under the Electoral College system. Historically, Nevada has been a strong bellwether for predicting the general election outcome, despite its smaller number of electoral votes compared to other battleground states.
As noted by Ballotpedia, Nevada has correctly selected the winning candidate in 87.1% of presidential elections from 1900 to 2020. Although Nevada has leaned Democratic in recent years, with the last Republican presidential win occurring in 2004 when George W. Bush defeated John Kerry, political analysts had anticipated a more unpredictable result this time.
Changing demographics and rising dissatisfaction with the two-party system have spurred a big increase in third-party registrations since 2020. Nonpartisan voters in Nevada now outnumber both registered Republicans and Democrats, according to Politico.
