The potential unraveling of the border deal looms large as internal strife within the GOP intensifies, casting doubt on the bill even before its text sees the light of day in the Senate’s forthcoming deliberations.
As senators reconvene for a crucial two-week session in Washington, Republican confidence wavers regarding the proposed agreement, intricately linked to substantial foreign aid allocations.
Initially aiming for a compromise that could secure the support of a Republican majority, GOP leaders now grapple with heightened challenges, exacerbated by criticism from conservatives, Speaker Mike Johnson, and the lingering influence of former President Donald Trump.
Border Deal (Credits: The Wall Street Journal)
Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas) expressed skepticism about the bill’s prospects in the Senate, stating that it “certainly doesn’t seem like it” is on a path to approval. A faction within the party asserts willingness to support the bill only if it garners substantial Republican backing, reflecting concerns about passing legislation that the House may ultimately reject.
The growing uncertainty surrounding the bill’s future stems from two primary factors: Trump’s vehement opposition and Johnson’s categorical refusal to bring it to the House floor.
Johnson, who claims to have discussed the matter extensively with Trump, denies any politically motivated opposition, adding a layer of complexity to the political landscape.
This frustrating impasse has left senators from both parties in a precarious position after investing over three months in attempting to merge immigration and border policies with critical funding for Ukraine.
Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) alleges that Johnson’s resistance is an attempt to bury the bill in the Senate, shielding himself from potential fallout related to Ukraine funding.
Johnson’s stance holds sway over Senate Republicans, who may need to secure a significant number of votes to surpass the 60-vote threshold, depending on potential Democratic defections. However, garnering even more GOP support remains crucial for any chance of success in the House.
These dynamics have raised a pervasive question among some well-informed Republicans: Will the bill even reach the Senate floor? Senator Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) questions the wisdom of expending political capital on a cause that may not pass, especially considering the House’s reluctance to consider it.
Cramer commends Senator James Lankford (R-Okla.) for his negotiation efforts but laments the political convenience of some Republican senators distancing themselves from the deal.
Critics, including Johnson and conservative senators, point to perceived flaws in the agreement, such as delayed activation of border shutdown authorities and the withholding of the bill’s text, allowing speculation to foment among the party’s right wing.
Senators Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) openly criticize both the agreement and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s leadership, complicating the negotiating process.
Senator Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) suggests that foreign interference, possibly from Russia, may be contributing to negative messaging against the bill. Despite the absence of factual basis, the narrative gains traction, making it increasingly challenging to win the debate on the policy’s merits, according to Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), a Lankford ally.
Amid these political crosscurrents, several GOP leaders remain noncommittal about the legislation, with Senator Steve Daines (R-Mont.) acknowledging “real concerns” from constituents.
Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) emphasizes the need to wait for the actual text before revealing her position. Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) defends Lankford’s negotiated provisions, claiming they represent a substantial improvement over the existing border crisis.
However, even when the text eventually surfaces, Senator Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) suggests it must be public for an extended period before progressing further.
As the Senate approaches a two-week recess, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer hints at an imminent vote, while a House committee explores articles of impeachment against Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who collaborated closely with Senate negotiators.
The frustration among senators, exemplified by Senator Jon Tester (D-Mont.), underscores the urgency to pass the bill and address border security issues to avoid potential political repercussions. As the political drama unfolds, the fate of the border deal remains uncertain, leaving the Senate grappling with internal divisions and external pressures.
