As the South Carolina Republican primary looms, it appears increasingly likely that Nikki Haley’s coalition may not be robust enough to block Donald Trump from securing the GOP presidential nomination.
Yet, emerging evidence also suggests that her coalition could be sufficiently large to prevent Trump from winning the White House in a general election, given the apparent alienation of her supporters from the former president.
Early GOP contests indicate that Haley’s support is drawn from segments of the Republican electorate deeply dissatisfied with Trump.
Nikki Haley (Credits: NY1)
In a potential rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden, the latter may need to attract crossover support from these disenchanted Republican-leaning voters.
While current polls show limited gains for Biden with this demographic, surveys from Iowa and New Hampshire reveal that most Haley supporters hold strongly negative views about Trump, offering Biden an opportunity for potential advancements.
Democratic strategist Ace Smith sees the sizable number of Haley voters expressing negative opinions about Trump as a warning for Trump’s team.
GOP strategist Michael Madrid, who advised the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, interprets the evidence as sending a dual message to the party. Madrid notes that while there is no room for anyone else to secure the GOP nomination, Trump enters the race with weaker support from the Republican base than in previous instances.
The early stages of the 2024 GOP nomination battle underscore the party’s divided attitudes toward Trump, a sentiment reflected in national surveys over recent years.
Approximately one-fifth to one-third of GOP partisans consistently express negative views about Trump in polls, particularly concerning the January 6, 2021, insurrection and his attempts to overturn the 2020 election.
While this faction does not constitute a majority, Haley has mobilized a coherent coalition of resistance against Trump. The mobilization of even a minority faction in the closely divided political landscape could pose challenges for Trump in a general election, should he advance that far.
Despite facing an uphill battle against Trump for the nomination, Haley has demonstrated in Iowa and New Hampshire that she can rally the minority faction within the GOP that holds anti-Trump views into a cohesive voting bloc.
This minority faction, if it refuses to support Trump, could pose a significant challenge in a closely contested general election. Even if only a small fraction of typically Republican voters defect due to Trump being the nominee, it could have a notable impact in a close election, according to political scientist Alan Abramowitz.
In Iowa, the anti-Trump voters split between Haley and Ron DeSantis, while in New Hampshire, they consolidated around Haley as the sole remaining alternative.
Haley voters in both states shared similar demographic and ideological characteristics, showing less strength for Trump among those with a college degree, independent voters, and those who identify as somewhat conservative or moderate.
The voters resisting Trump demonstrated a well-thought-out decision based on various factors, such as policy views, temperament, and views on criminal cases related to Trump.
The entrance polls from Iowa and New Hampshire reveal strikingly negative views among Haley voters about Trump and his assertions regarding the 2020 election.
Most Haley supporters expressed dissatisfaction with Trump as the nominee, emphasizing the potential challenges Trump might face in garnering support from this faction in a general election.
The AP/NORC VoteCast poll echoed these concerns, with a significant portion of Haley voters in Iowa and New Hampshire stating they would not vote for Trump in a general election.
