It’s still early in the 2024 Republican presidential nominating contest, but former President Donald Trump is on track to potentially win every single state, a feat not achieved by a non-incumbent presidential candidate in over two decades.
Nikki Haley, the former U.N. Ambassador, faces an uphill battle as Trump has already secured victories in the first five states – Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Michigan – with a current delegate count of Trump 110, Haley 20.
This weekend’s upcoming contests in Idaho, Washington, D.C., and North Dakota, along with Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses in more than a dozen states, will play a crucial role in determining the trajectory of the race.
Nikki Haley (Credits: NBC News)
Washington, D.C., in particular, offers an opportunity for Haley to secure her first victory, reminiscent of Marco Rubio’s success in the district in 2016. Super Tuesday states like Virginia and Massachusetts also present chances for Haley to gain ground.
However, if Trump continues his winning streak, the 2024 Republican race could become the least competitive presidential nominating fight since 2000. In that year, then-Vice President Al Gore, a Democrat, went undefeated in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Subsequent years witnessed more competitive races, with candidates experiencing victories and defeats in various states during the primary process. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry faced challenges in specific states despite ultimately winning his party’s nomination.
In 2008, the GOP contest between John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Mitt Romney saw a distribution of early victories, while the Democratic race extended until the end.
In 2012, GOP nominee Mitt Romney faced losses against Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich before securing the nomination. The 2016 and 2020 presidential races similarly featured nominees Trump, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden experiencing both successes and setbacks in primaries and caucuses against their respective rivals.
While Trump’s dominance in the early states suggests a formidable position, the outcome of upcoming contests will determine whether Haley can disrupt his winning streak and introduce competitiveness into the 2024 Republican presidential nominating contest.
The historical context highlights the rarity of a candidate going undefeated in the primary process and emphasizes the significance of each state’s results in shaping the trajectory of the race.
