In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, former President Donald Trump is shown to have an edge over President Joe Biden among general election voters. This advantage is attributed to perceived shortcomings in Biden’s leadership and concerns among voters about the direction of the nation.
Despite Biden’s slight lead among likely voters throughout the campaign, the latest poll reveals Trump leading by five percentage points among registered voters, marking the largest lead Trump has held in this type of poll, even surpassing his performance in the 2016 and 2020 races.
The poll highlights several key factors contributing to Biden’s declining popularity. Notably, only 36 percent of respondents approve of Biden’s performance, with a significant 47 percent expressing strong disapproval—the highest disapproval rating of his presidency to date.
A mere 18 percent of voters feel that Biden’s policies have personally benefited them, compared to over double that number expressing the same sentiment for Trump’s policies. Furthermore, concerns about the economy persist, with a majority of voters expressing pessimism in this regard.
Biden and Trump (Credits: CNN)
An alarming finding from the poll is that two-thirds of respondents believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, with Trump winning the support of 63 percent of these voters. This sentiment underscores broader dissatisfaction with the current trajectory of the nation and contributes to Trump’s favorability among certain demographics.
Biden’s lead among women and racial minorities is waning, with Trump now leading among Latino voters and women equally split between the two candidates. Notably, Biden’s support among minorities without college degrees, a key demographic in his 2020 victory, has diminished.
The poll also reveals signs of disaffection among voters who supported Biden in the 2020 election. A significant portion of these voters, 17 percent, are not backing his re-election bid, with 10 percent indicating support for Trump instead.
This erosion of support from his 2020 base presents a significant challenge for Biden’s re-election prospects. However, among voters who disapprove of both candidates, Biden maintains a 12-point lead, a demographic that has historically played a decisive role in previous elections.
In response to the poll, the Biden campaign’s communications director, Michael Tyler, emphasized the campaign’s focus on actual voter behavior rather than polling data. Tyler expressed confidence in the campaign’s ability to outperform expectations, citing successes in special elections and primary contests.
Despite the challenging poll numbers, the campaign remains committed to its strategy and is determined to run a robust campaign to secure victory, much like it did in the 2020 election.
