The upcoming release of S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for April is anticipated to shed light on the trajectory of business activity in the United States. These PMIs encompass both manufacturing and services sectors, culminating in a Composite PMI figure, providing insights into economic activity over the month.
In March, the US private sector witnessed a moderate expansion, with the Composite PMI dipping slightly to 52.1. Both the Services PMI and Manufacturing PMI experienced declines, albeit remaining above the critical 50 threshold, indicating expansion.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, highlighted the positive aspect of the survey findings, indicating sustained growth in GDP and employment. However, he also noted an uptick in inflationary pressures, attributed to rising costs and strengthened pricing power.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.31% | -0.51% | -0.15% | -0.32% | -0.05% | -0.17% | -0.23% | |
| EUR | 0.31% | -0.21% | 0.16% | 0.00% | 0.26% | 0.15% | 0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.51% | 0.20% | 0.36% | 0.19% | 0.47% | 0.33% | 0.29% | |
| CAD | 0.15% | -0.16% | -0.36% | -0.15% | 0.10% | -0.02% | -0.08% | |
| AUD | 0.32% | 0.00% | -0.21% | 0.15% | 0.26% | 0.14% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | -0.28% | -0.46% | -0.11% | -0.25% | -0.10% | -0.13% | |
| NZD | 0.17% | -0.14% | -0.34% | 0.02% | -0.14% | 0.11% | -0.08% | |
| CHF | 0.25% | -0.12% | -0.34% | 0.03% | -0.11% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
(The heat map displays how much major currencies change compared to each other. You choose one currency from the left side and another from the top. For instance, if you pick the Euro on the left and the Japanese Yen at the top, the number in the box shows how much the Euro changed against the Yen.)
US April S&P Global PMI Preview: Expansion Signals with Minimal Impact (Credits: Talk Markets)
Expectations for the April PMI report suggest a continuation of expansion, with both Manufacturing and Services PMIs forecasted at 52. This ongoing growth, coupled with persistent inflationary pressures, has led market participants to revise their expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, delaying anticipated rate cuts.
The release of the PMI data on Tuesday is poised to influence the performance of the US Dollar against other currencies, including the Euro. Despite the Dollar’s recent strength, any unexpected contraction in sector activity or signs of softening employment and input costs could prompt selling pressure on the currency.
EUR/USD analysis suggests a bearish bias, with the pair hovering above the 1.0600 level. Technical indicators indicate further downside potential, with resistance levels noted at 1.0700 and 1.0750, while support levels lie at 1.0600, 1.0500, and 1.0450.
In a broader context, the US Dollar’s value is heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates and quantitative easing measures. Market participants closely monitor economic indicators such as PMIs for insights into the health of the economy and potential policy shifts. However, uncertainties persist, and investors are urged to conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
