Jeff Asher, a New Orleans-based crime data analyst with experience in government agencies like the CIA and Department of Defense, presents a starkly different narrative on crime trends in the United States compared to the rhetoric pushed by former President Donald Trump and his conservative allies.
While Trump and his supporters have been using dire language to describe crime trends in America, Asher’s analysis of early data from 2023 shows a decline in murders nationwide.
He cautiously approached the data initially but became more confident in declaring a major drop in killings as the trend continued. Asher also highlights that entire crime, as indicated by preliminary 2023 FBI data, is showing an obvious decrease.
Former President Donald Trump (Credits: ABC News)
However, Trump’s rhetoric portrays a nation engulfed in a crime wave, particularly targeting swing voters with messages of public safety concerns, often focusing on crimes committed by undocumented immigrants.
Despite the data contradicting Trump’s narrative, many Americans still agree with him, according to polls, making crime a potentially huge issue in the upcoming elections.
The spike in violent crimes during the pandemic, particularly in 2020, was alarming, but experts attribute it to pandemic disruptions rather than long-term trends. The upward trend in crime began to subside, and 2023 saw a continued decrease in violent crime and murders, according to FBI reports.
Donald Trump (Credits: POLITICO.eu)
Asher acknowledges challenges with crime data reporting, including incomplete information and discrepancies between different sources. Still, he and other experts are confident in the entire trend of decreasing crime rates, despite some communities experiencing elevated crime levels.
Trump’s persistent focus on crime, even as data shows a downward trend, reflects his political strategy, especially as he faces legal challenges. However, polls indicate that many Americans perceive crime as increasing, influenced by political and media narratives rather than empirical data.
Asher emphasizes the importance of acknowledging the positive trend in violent crime as the baseline for policy discussions, indicating that while challenges remain, there is progress worth recognizing.
