A recent wargame simulation conducted by British defense expert Finley Grimble suggests that if Donald Trump were to win the presidency again, his policies could potentially destroy the NATO alliance.
The game, which involved players taking on the roles of leaders from 32 NATO nations, Ukraine, and Russia, simulated a scenario in which Trump’s administration withdraws support from NATO, leading to a collapse of the alliance.
In the game, Trump’s administration attempts to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia without European help, which fails. The US then slashes aid to Ukraine and reduces its participation in NATO, including redeploying 50% of its military assets in Europe to the Indo-Pacific theater.
Trump’s Return to White House Could Lead to NATO’s Downfall, Wargame Suggests
The Trump administration also institutes a “dormancy” policy, which includes go-slow tactics such as less US participation in NATO exercises and requiring prior consultation with Washington for the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) to act.
As the game continues, the US complains that some NATO members are failing to meet the alliance’s defense spending goals, leading to a decrease in NATO effectiveness. France and Germany call for the European Union to take over from NATO, which angers Poland and leads to a split in the alliance.
The simulation ends with Russia launching new offensives in Ukraine and the global effects of a US pullback from NATO being felt, including a decrease in European economic stability and an increase in tensions with China and Iran.
The game suggests that Trump’s policies could lead to a collapse of NATO, which would have far-reaching consequences for global security. While the game is not a predictor of the future, it highlights the potential risks of Trump’s approach to NATO and the importance of maintaining a strong and united alliance.
