Since early 2023, Panama has faced one of its driest years on record, significantly impacting the Panama Canal’s operations. The Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), which provides all the water for the canal, received below-average rainfall for seven out of the eight months of the rainy season.
As a result, the Panama Canal Authority started restricting the number and size of ships passing through due to historically low water levels in Lake Gatún, the main water source for the canal, causing ongoing disruptions to global shipping.
Rainfall in Panama is influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with El Niño years like 2023-24 typically bringing lower precipitation and a shorter rainy season. Scientists from multiple countries studied how the 2023-24 El Niño and climate change affected the rainfall deficit and low lake levels.
They used peer-reviewed methods to analyze May-December rainfall around Lake Gatún and potential evapotranspiration during the dry season.
Panama Canal Faces Major Disruptions from Severe Drought and El Niño Effects
The findings highlighted that reduced rainfall and low lake levels have severe impacts on both global shipping and local communities. Indigenous, Afro-Panamanian, and rural populations, who rely on water-dependent livelihoods and lack basic services, are disproportionately affected. Additionally, urban expansion, population growth, and aging infrastructure that leaks water exacerbate water supply pressures during dry periods.
Global shipping has been disrupted by the restrictions on the Panama Canal, leading to longer shipping routes, delays at other ports, and increased demand for trucking and rail services. These changes raise costs and greenhouse gas emissions. Reduced revenue for the Panama Canal Authority also threatens employment in canal-related industries and worsens socio-economic challenges for local communities.
The study concluded that while there is some evidence of drying in the region, the data does not strongly support that it is due to human-induced climate change. Evapotranspiration in Panama, driven mainly by wind speed, humidity, and cloud cover, has a minimal impact compared to the rainfall deficit.
Future trends under continued warming remain uncertain, but similar low rainfall events are expected in future El Niño years without adaptation measures.
