It has been nearly a month since Ismail Haniyeh was killed in a Tehran guest house linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran has accused Israel of orchestrating the assassination using a remotely detonated bomb planted months earlier by IRGC agents.
While Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement, Iran has vowed retaliation. Despite pleas from the U.S. and European leaders urging Iran to avoid escalating the situation, Tehran remains resolute and has not yet acted on its threats. Iranian officials have stated that they would refrain from retaliation if a cease-fire were established in Gaza, but fighting in the region persists.
Tehran accuses Israel of orchestrating the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, promising retaliation despite international pleas for restraint
Even if Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s latest cease-fire proposal is accepted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—which remains uncertain—Hamas has rejected it. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, indifferent to the rising civilian casualties, hopes for an Iranian attack on Israel to further complicate the conflict.
Ironically, Netanyahu might also be anticipating such an attack to draw the U.S. into a broader conflict with Iran, a scenario he has long sought. The Biden administration has pledged to defend Israel against Iranian aggression but has made it clear that it will not support Israeli offensives against Iran.
When Iran launched a massive missile and drone attack on April 13, the U.S., along with Britain, France, and several Arab nations, intervened to intercept the assault. President Biden and these allies are prepared to act similarly in future attacks.
In response to potential threats, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln, an aircraft carrier with advanced fighter jets, and the USS Georgia, a guided-missile submarine. The Georgia, armed with long-range Tomahawk missiles, could potentially strike Iranian oil facilities, enhancing American deterrence.
Although President Biden might hesitate to initiate a direct attack on Iran, the presence of such formidable assets serves as a potent deterrent. This strategic positioning, coupled with Biden’s limited domestic legislative leverage, may explain why Iran, despite its anger and rhetoric, is proceeding with caution.
