As the United States presidential election nears, analysts are raising alarms that Israel’s escalating military actions in the Middle East could threaten the prospects of the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Typically, foreign policy is not a top priority for U.S. voters; however, the recent intensification of Israel’s war in Gaza and its bombing campaigns in Lebanon have heightened scrutiny of the U.S.’s role in these conflicts.
The Biden administration’s unwavering support for Israel has created divisions within the Democratic base, particularly among Arab American voters, which could impact Harris’s performance in key battleground states.
The political alignment among Arab Americans has shifted significantly in recent years. During President Obama’s second term, Arab Americans identified with the Democratic Party at a two-to-one ratio. Currently, that identification is nearly balanced, with only 38 percent of Arab Americans considering themselves Democrats.
This change is largely due to the Biden administration’s strong backing of Israel amid a devastating conflict that has resulted in considerable civilian casualties and destruction in Gaza. With the death toll exceeding 42,000, many Arab Americans are reconsidering their political affiliations, feeling that their concerns have been overlooked.
Kamala Harris
Polling data suggests that support for Harris among Arab voters is tenuous. A September poll showed Harris and former President Donald Trump nearly tied, with Harris receiving 41 percent support compared to Trump’s 42 percent.
This is a marked improvement for Democrats, especially when contrasted with President Biden’s plummeting support, which fell to just 17 percent among Arab voters after the escalation of the conflict. Harris’s reluctance to distance herself from Biden’s policies has frustrated many potential supporters who are seeking a more compassionate response to the humanitarian crisis.
Arab American voters could play a critical role in swing states like Michigan, which has one of the largest Arab populations in the U.S. Harris’s slim lead in Michigan—averaging around 1.8 percent—places her at risk, particularly with third-party candidates like Jill Stein actively seeking the Arab and Muslim American vote.
Analysts warn that if a significant portion of Arab Americans opts to abstain from voting due to dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party’s stance on Gaza, it could undermine Harris’s chances of securing victory in this essential state.
Within the Arab American community, opinions are divided on how to address the current political situation. Some believe that a Harris defeat in Michigan would serve as a wake-up call for future candidates regarding the importance of addressing Arab voters’ concerns.
Others view the prospect of a second Trump presidency as an unacceptable risk, particularly given his aggressive stance toward Israel and threats to deport pro-Palestinian activists. The Uncommitted National Movement, which arose from protests against Biden, exemplifies the struggle to balance these differing viewpoints as the election approaches.
The upcoming election is further complicated by rising tensions in the Middle East. Recent missile attacks from Iran and Israel’s military operations in Lebanon have raised fears of a broader regional conflict. Polls indicate that many Americans, especially Democrats, are worried about the implications of U.S. involvement in these issues.
With changing voter attitudes—especially among younger demographics and communities of color—the Democratic Party may need to reassess its foreign policy to align with the evolving perspectives of its base to navigate the challenges of the upcoming election effectively.
