Representative Lauren Boebert’s position in Colorado’s 4th congressional district appears to be less secure than expected, as recent polling indicates a tightening race. The Cook Political Report has adjusted its rating from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” suggesting that Boebert’s re-election prospects may no longer be assured.
Her slight lead seems to rely more on the district’s traditionally conservative voter base than on any particular success in her campaigning. This shift in rating underscores the growing challenges Boebert faces as she contends with a mixed reception among voters.
Boebert’s position in Congress has been tenuous since her narrow 2022 victory, where she won her seat in the 3rd district by a razor-thin margin of just 546 votes. After that close race and a series of controversies—most notably, an incident at a “Beetlejuice” musical that drew national attention—she announced a switch to run in the neighboring 4th district.
This move followed the retirement of Representative Ken Buck, who had represented the district and who openly criticized Boebert, calling her “worse than George Santos.” Her decision to change districts was likely made with the hope of gaining a safer seat, but it has brought fresh challenges.
Rep. Lauren Boebert’s Re-Election at Risk as Colorado’s 4th District Voters Show Signs of Discontent
In the 4th district, Boebert now faces first-time Democratic candidate Trisha Calvarese, who has criticized her on issues such as IVF and veterans’ rights. Calvarese’s campaign, while an underdog in a conservative district, has gained attention by questioning Boebert’s stances and raising concerns about her focus on the issues. Calvarese’s challenge may resonate with some voters who are disillusioned with Boebert’s style of politics and are looking for alternatives, even if they typically lean Republican.
Despite the district’s conservative makeup, Boebert has struggled to win over a portion of her base. Republicans account for around 34 percent of registered voters in the district, with Democrats making up only about 15 percent, giving her a structural advantage.
However, Boebert’s public behavior and use of her Christian faith in ways some see as politically motivated have frustrated a segment of conservative voters. These voters, while still largely supportive of Republican values, are wary of Boebert’s approach, which some have described as self-promotional rather than substantive.
As election day nears, Boebert’s campaign faces a pivotal moment. While her party affiliation and the district’s conservative lean may work in her favor, her reputation and behavior have created uncertainty. With some Republicans expressing reluctance or even considering abstaining from voting, Boebert’s results will be a reflection of her appeal—or lack thereof—among core conservative voters who may be reconsidering their support.
