Tropical Storm Rafael has formed in the Caribbean Sea and is currently moving toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center reported that the storm, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, was located approximately 80 miles south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, and 230 miles southeast of Grand Cayman.
It is moving northwest at 13 mph. Forecasters predict that Rafael could strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday, then weaken again into a tropical storm before reaching the U.S. southern coast by Saturday.
The storm is triggering warnings and watches for several regions. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and multiple Cuban provinces, including Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica and other Cuban provinces, such as Villa Clara and Cienfuegos. Additionally, a tropical storm watch is in effect for parts of the Florida Keys and Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin late Monday night in Jamaica.
Heavy rainfall is one of the primary concerns with Rafael, especially over Jamaica and Cuba. Forecasts suggest that these areas could receive 3 to 9 inches of rain, leading to possible flooding and mudslides, particularly in mountainous regions.
Tropical Storm Rafael Forms in the Caribbean, Threatening Gulf Coast with Heavy Rainfall and Flooding
In addition to the rainfall, coastal flooding is possible, with minor flooding expected in Jamaica on Monday and in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. The storm’s onshore winds could also cause a storm surge, raising water levels by 2 to 4 feet in some areas of southern Cuba, including Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.
As Rafael moves further through the Caribbean, it is expected to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday. The storm will continue to affect Cuba and approach the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week.
Although Texas is not currently in the storm’s path for direct landfall, there is significant uncertainty regarding its future movement. The National Weather Service has highlighted this unpredictability, making it difficult to forecast the storm’s exact impact on coastal areas of the U.S.
By the end of the week, heavy rainfall from Rafael is expected to spread north into Florida and parts of the southeastern U.S. Forecasters caution that while the storm’s path remains uncertain, the weather conditions will likely continue to evolve. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the storm closely, and residents in the affected areas should remain prepared for changing conditions.
