ProPublica and The Texas Tribune recently collaborated on an article that explores a significant shift in the political alignment of Texas’ border region, which is traditionally a stronghold for Democrats. Over the years, Texas Democrats have hoped that the state’s growing Latino population would be the key to breaking the Republican Party’s dominance.
However, the 2024 election results highlighted that the GOP has made remarkable strides in appealing to Latino voters, especially along the Texas-Mexico border. Donald Trump’s 55% share of the Latino vote outpaced Vice President Kamala Harris, signaling a shift away from the Democratic Party in key regions.
Trump’s strong performance was particularly noticeable in the counties along the Texas-Mexico border. He won 14 out of 18 of these counties, marking a dramatic shift from previous elections. Notably, Trump won all four counties in the Rio Grande Valley, an area that had long been a Democratic stronghold.
This was especially striking in Starr County, which flipped to Republicans for the first time in more than a century. Even in El Paso, where Democrats have traditionally been strong, Trump narrowed the margins in a way not seen in decades, suggesting a possible long-term change in the voting preferences of border residents.
Republicans also made impressive gains down the ballot in the border region. U.S. Representative Monica De La Cruz, a Republican from the Rio Grande Valley, successfully held onto her seat.
Additionally, Republicans picked up several key state legislative seats that had previously been held by Democrats, further cementing the shift in South Texas. U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, who carried a majority of the Latino vote in his reelection, framed these results as a sign of “generational change,” signaling that the GOP’s influence in the region may be lasting.
Texas Border Region Shifts Politically as GOP Gains Ground Among Latino Voters in 2024 Elections
The shift in voter preferences among Latinos, particularly in Texas, can largely be attributed to Trump’s focus on economic issues that resonated with many in these communities. Residents along the border, facing economic challenges and frustrated with the Biden administration’s handling of border security, were particularly drawn to Trump’s messaging.
Experts observed that many Latinos in this region don’t primarily view themselves through a racial or ethnic lens, which allowed Trump to connect with them on issues such as economic stability, masculinity, and cultural identity, rather than directly addressing ethnic concerns.
Despite the overall GOP gains, there were notable exceptions in local races, where Democrats were able to hold onto positions even in counties that leaned Republican in the presidential race. For instance, in Val Verde County, Democrat Joe Frank Martinez retained his position as sheriff, despite Trump winning the county by a wide margin.
Similarly, in Jim Wells County, a Democratic sheriff narrowly lost to a Republican challenger, yet Trump still carried the county. These local races show that while Republican candidates may dominate higher-profile elections, personal connections and local dynamics still play a significant role in some border areas.
Republican efforts to gain ground in border counties have been focused on immigration and border security, issues that resonate strongly with local voters. The GOP-backed PAC, Project Red TX, targeted numerous races in the region, with messaging that emphasized dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s handling of border issues.
In Val Verde County, for example, the arrival of tens of thousands of migrants in 2021 fueled concerns about overwhelmed local resources and rising poverty, issues that many felt were exacerbated by the administration’s border policies. This focus on border security and economic concerns appears to have strengthened Republican appeal among Latino voters.
However, local Democratic leaders are increasingly worried about their ability to counteract this Republican momentum without more support from the state and national party. Leaders like Sylvia Bruni in Webb County have expressed frustration over the lack of resources and support from higher levels of the Democratic Party.
Despite these challenges, they emphasize the need for stronger collaboration between local and national leaders to engage with voters and counter the growing Republican influence. Without this support, Democrats fear that they will struggle to maintain control of key local races in the face of increasing Republican strength in the region.
