Donald Trump’s return to the White House could bring significant changes to the global economy, particularly in terms of the role of the US dollar and international relations with countries like Russia and China. One of the major areas of concern is the increasing trend of “de-dollarization,” with nations in the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) exploring alternatives to the US dollar.
These countries are working on creating a shared currency and developing financial systems like China’s CIPS and Russia’s SPFS to bypass traditional Western networks, such as SWIFT, which could challenge the dollar’s dominance in global markets.
Trump has already indicated that he would take a tough approach to countries moving away from the dollar. His tactics could include imposing tariffs, trade restrictions, and penalties to deter other nations from diminishing the dollar’s role in international trade.
In his previous administration, Trump used tariffs on China and sanctions on Iran and Venezuela to protect American economic interests, and his future policies are expected to follow a similar path. Such actions could escalate global economic tensions and drive countries like Russia and China to pursue de-dollarization even more aggressively.
Russia, in particular, would be a key player in how Trump’s policies unfold. Despite Trump’s claims of a good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin has made it clear that US-Russia relations are currently at a historic low.
Russian officials have expressed doubts about any potential improvement in ties under Trump, especially considering his protectionist policies that could negatively impact Russia’s energy exports by making American oil and gas more competitive. These dynamics complicate the possibility of a stronger economic relationship between the two nations if Trump returns to power.
Trump’s return to office would have wide-reaching effects on international trade and finance. As countries like China and Russia push for alternatives to the dollar, the US could respond with measures designed to safeguard the dollar’s dominance.
This could disrupt established global financial systems and increase tensions between major powers. Trump’s protectionist economic policies and his unpredictable approach to foreign relations could also lead to shifts in trade norms, causing instability in international markets.
In the end, Trump’s economic strategies could affect countries far beyond the US, reshaping global trade relations and financial systems. As nations move toward alternatives to the dollar, Trump’s administration would likely seek to counter these efforts, potentially leading to more fragmented international markets.
Whether his approach would succeed in reinforcing the dollar’s global supremacy or lead to further economic divisions remains uncertain, but the stakes for the global economy would undoubtedly be high.