Saudi Arabia and Iran, historically bitter rivals, are currently making cautious efforts to ease tensions, driven by growing regional instability and the volatile Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This shift has gained urgency following the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, as his policies could significantly affect the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia finds itself in a delicate position, balancing its attempts to improve relations with Iran while also managing its strategic ties with Israel. Despite recent efforts toward cooperation, the two nations remain rivals, each competing for influence in the region and within the Muslim world.
For decades, Saudi Arabia and Iran have been locked in rivalry, each vying for leadership of different branches of Islam and supporting opposing factions in conflicts such as those in Syria and Yemen. However, the recent diplomatic thaw between the two powers, which began with the restoration of diplomatic relations in March 2023 after seven years of severed ties, is a notable shift.
The breakthrough, facilitated by a Chinese-brokered agreement, marked the first signs of easing tensions. This diplomatic move accelerated after Israel’s invasion of Gaza in October 2023, which heightened fears of a broader regional conflict and provided further impetus for cooperation between Riyadh and Tehran.
The escalation of violence between Israel and Iran-backed groups in Gaza and Lebanon has intensified fears of an all-out regional war. Direct aerial attacks between Israel and Iran have become a significant concern, with both nations’ actions contributing to rising tensions.
Saudi Arabia and Iran Navigate Rivalry, Diplomacy, and Regional Stability Amid Shifting U.S. Policies
Saudi Arabia, concerned about the potential for conflict spilling over into its own borders, views these developments as a threat to its national security. Despite the thaw in relations, experts emphasize that the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran remains, with both countries seeking to maintain and expand their influence in the region, particularly in areas like Yemen and Syria.
The results of the U.S. presidential election further complicated the regional dynamics. Trump’s victory has raised concerns that his administration could take a more aggressive stance toward Iran, potentially emboldening Israel and intensifying conflicts in the region. During Trump’s first term, his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, which included sanctions and military action, created significant tensions.
This has led Saudi Arabia to reconsider its strategy, as it may need to navigate a delicate balance between maintaining its relationship with the U.S. and avoiding direct confrontation with Iran. Experts suggest that Saudi Arabia could play a role in moderating U.S. policy to prevent further escalation and ensure regional stability.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s efforts to normalize relations with Israel have hit a roadblock, with talks postponed indefinitely due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Although Saudi Arabia has significant strategic interests in improving ties with Israel, including security cooperation and access to advanced defense technology, it cannot afford to do so without addressing the Palestinian issue.
Public opinion in the Muslim world, particularly regarding the rights of Palestinians, plays a crucial role in shaping Saudi foreign policy. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia must consider the reaction of Iran, which opposes any normalization with Israel. As a result, Riyadh must navigate these complexities carefully, balancing its interests in both Tehran and Tel Aviv while maintaining regional stability.
