2024 has been called a “super year” for elections, as incumbent governments around the world have faced significant losses. Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential race is part of a larger trend, with voters in around 70 countries, representing nearly half of the world’s population, rejecting sitting governments.
Voter discontent is driven by a variety of factors, with many people struggling economically in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Issues like high inflation, rising migration, and governments struggling to recover financially have fueled this growing frustration.
Richard Wike from the Pew Research Center observes that a key factor across many countries is the increasing perception that political elites are disconnected from the public’s needs. This has led to a decline in support for democracy itself, as voters report feeling that no political faction truly represents them.
Economic challenges, especially inflation, are major contributors to this disillusionment, leading to widespread anti-incumbent sentiment. Political scientist Steven Levitsky highlights that in Western democracies, 40 out of 54 elections since the pandemic have resulted in the removal of incumbents, underscoring the global trend of voter dissatisfaction.
In Europe, the anti-incumbent sentiment has been especially strong. In the UK, the Conservative Party faced a historic defeat, with power shifting back to the center-left Labour Party. Meanwhile, far-right parties gained significant ground in France and Germany, creating political turbulence within the European Union’s largest countries.
In France, the rise of the anti-immigration National Rally party caused a shift in power dynamics, although tactical voting kept it from taking full control. This surge of far-right support has led to a divided political environment in these countries, highlighting a growing sense of frustration with the establishment.
Global Anti-Incumbent Sentiment Defines 2024 Elections as Voters Reject Governments Amid Economic Struggles
Asia has also seen similar trends, with elections in South Korea, India, and Japan producing unexpected results. In South Korea, opposition parties defeated the ruling conservative government, while in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party lost its parliamentary majority, signaling a rejection of his Hindu nationalist policies.
In Japan, the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party faced a significant loss, largely due to public dissatisfaction with corruption scandals. Although Japan’s ruling party remains in power, the election results have empowered opposition parties to push for policy changes, mirroring the global rise in anti-incumbent sentiment.
In Africa, the trend of discontent with governments has been apparent in both democratic and authoritarian contexts. In South Africa, widespread unemployment and inequality led to a loss of support for the African National Congress, which had been in power since the end of apartheid. As a result, the ANC was forced into a coalition government.
However, not all African elections followed this pattern, as in countries with authoritarian leaders like Rwanda, where President Kagame secured a near-unanimous victory. In countries with stronger democratic institutions like South Africa and Botswana, however, elections resulted in either changes of government or new coalition arrangements driven by economic dissatisfaction.
Mexico stands out in Latin America as an exception to the anti-incumbent trend. In June, Claudia Sheinbaum, selected by outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, won the presidency with ease, reflecting voter satisfaction with the country’s economic conditions.
However, even new leaders in other countries, like Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer, have faced declining approval ratings due to unmet public expectations.
This suggests that while voters may be quick to remove incumbents, they are equally impatient with those who replace them. This has led to concerns about the stability of democratic systems, as governments struggle to meet public demands, potentially weakening political structures in the long term.
