The election of Donald Trump, combined with the Republican control of the Senate, is poised to solidify conservative dominance on the U.S. Supreme Court for many years to come. Progressives had hoped for proposals such as expanding the court or imposing term limits on justices, but these efforts hinged on Democrats gaining control of both the White House and the Senate.
With Republicans now in power, they have the opportunity to maintain conservative influence on the Court well beyond Trump’s tenure.
The Supreme Court’s two oldest justices, Clarence Thomas and Samuel A. Alito Jr., are also the most conservative members of the bench. At 76, Thomas, who has served for over three decades, is on track to become the longest-serving justice in the Court’s history by 2028.
Alito, 74, was confirmed in 2006. Both justices are at a stage in their careers where retirement is a real possibility, especially given the death of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in 2020, which led to President Trump appointing the conservative Amy Coney Barrett to fill her seat.
Trump’s Presidency and Senate Majority Solidify Conservative Stronghold on U.S. Supreme Court for Decades
Conservative commentators believe that either Thomas or Alito, or both, may retire during Trump’s second term. If they do, the president would be able to appoint younger conservative justices, many of whom are already serving in federal appeals courts. These new appointments could serve on the Supreme Court for 30 years or more, further cementing the conservative majority on the bench.
Had the Democrats kept control of the Senate, they would have been able to block any judicial nominations from Trump that they viewed as too extreme. However, with Republicans in control of the Senate, Trump will not face significant opposition in pushing through his judicial picks.
Over the course of his first term, Trump successfully appointed three conservative justices—Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett—thanks to the backing of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who had blocked President Obama’s attempt to fill the seat of the late Justice Antonin Scalia.
Trump’s conservative appointees, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett, have already played pivotal roles in major decisions, including overturning Roe v. Wade and granting expansive immunity to presidents. These justices are expected to serve for several decades.
Additionally, while Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Sonia Sotomayor are not expected to retire soon, they are both in their 70s, which could open the door for further conservative appointments if either decides to step down. Meanwhile, President Biden has made only one Supreme Court appointment, that of Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, the Court’s first Black woman.
