Vladimir Putin is likely to seize upon the ongoing political instability in several democracies that have strongly opposed his invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions imposed by the West have pushed Russia closer to the Global South, and Putin now finds himself in a favorable position as countries like France, Germany, Romania, and South Korea face significant internal crises.
This instability threatens to undermine the unity of Western nations and weaken coordinated efforts to counter Russian aggression, which could provide Putin with a tactical advantage.
The political turmoil within Europe is particularly pronounced. In France, President Emmanuel Macron is dealing with a crisis after his prime minister resigned following a no-confidence vote in parliament. The current political situation is highly fragmented, with the parliament divided between the far-left, center-right, and far-right factions.
This division makes it difficult for Macron to formulate clear policies, especially regarding Russia. Similarly, in Germany, the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government after the sacking of his finance minister has left the country in disarray. The absence of a stable government in these two key European nations only hinders efforts to reach a consensus on defense and economic policies.
Romania is another focal point of instability in Eastern Europe, where tensions are high due to Russia’s actions. Allegations of Russian interference in Romania’s presidential election have emerged, with claims that Moscow supported far-right candidate Calin Georgescu.
Vladimir Putin
Although the country’s constitutional court annulled the election results, the controversy over foreign meddling has raised concerns about the integrity of Romanian democracy. Experts believe that Russia has been actively promoting extreme political factions in Romania to create divisions and undermine the country’s stability, especially as it sits on NATO’s eastern border.
In South Korea, political unrest has also been a significant issue. President Yoon Suk Yeol narrowly avoided impeachment after a series of protests and political moves to impose martial law. These events are unfolding amid heightened tensions with North Korea, which has been supplying munitions to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
South Korea’s domestic instability calls into question the country’s political stability and its alignment with democratic allies like the United States. Rivals, particularly Russia and China, may exploit these developments to paint South Korea as an unstable partner and disrupt its international relations.
Despite the challenges faced by these countries, experts suggest that the ultimate outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will depend on U.S. involvement. The U.S. plays a critical role in supporting Ukraine with military aid, and the policies of the incoming Trump administration could significantly alter the course of the war.
While Putin may benefit from short-term turmoil in Western democracies, it is the actions of the U.S. that are most likely to influence the conflict’s trajectory. If North Korea or Russia escalates tensions before Trump’s inauguration, it could limit opportunities for diplomatic negotiations, making the geopolitical situation even more unpredictable.
