In October 2024, Prabowo Subianto was sworn in as Indonesia’s eighth president, bringing with him a new dynamic to the nation’s foreign policy and regional security concerns. His appointment, coming after Joko Widodo’s presidency, raised immediate questions about how the former special forces general would approach issues of defense and international relations.
Widodo’s tenure had been more focused on attracting foreign investment and expanding export markets, while Prabowo’s leadership promises a more active role in regional security affairs, especially as tensions between China and the United States intensify in the Asia Pacific.
Prabowo’s foreign policy approach is expected to differ significantly from his predecessor. While Jokowi largely delegated foreign policy matters, Prabowo, through his defense minister, is anticipated to play a much more central role in shaping Indonesia’s international relations.
Analysts, such as Natalie Sambhi of Verve Research, suggest that Prabowo will seek deeper engagement with the Pentagon and other defense partners, indicating a shift toward closer military ties with the United States. However, Indonesia’s relationship with China is also crucial, with early signs pointing to a potential increase in military cooperation, including the resumption of joint exercises.
Prabowo Subianto’s Presidency Signals Shifts in Indonesia’s Regional Role and Global Alliances
The sequence of Prabowo’s early state visits provided limited insight into his strategic priorities. He visited Australia, Russia, and China in quick succession, followed by a visit to Washington, D.C., where he met with President Joe Biden.
While these trips raised some concerns about the symbolic implications of visiting Russia and China before the U.S., experts like Zachary Abuza argue that the timing was likely influenced by logistical factors rather than a deliberate foreign policy stance. Nonetheless, Prabowo’s actions reflect his broader vision for a strong Indonesia that engages with multiple global powers, rather than aligning too closely with any single nation.
One of the central questions analysts are grappling with is how Prabowo will balance Indonesia’s relationships with China and the U.S. Analysts suggest that under Prabowo, Indonesia could seek to diversify its regional security partnerships.
In addition to the U.S. and China, Indonesia may look to strengthen ties with other regional powers like Australia, India, Vietnam, the Philippines, and South Korea. By cultivating a broader network of security relationships, Indonesia can potentially mitigate the pressures of the U.S.-China rivalry while enhancing its role in regional stability.
Prabowo’s controversial background as a former military leader with a history of human rights allegations also shapes the perception of his presidency. During his military career, he was linked to abuses in East Timor and West Papua, and he was implicated in the 1998 Indonesian riots.
These allegations led to travel bans from both the U.S. and Australia, which were only lifted as Prabowo transitioned into politics and was appointed defense minister in 2020. Despite these past issues, Prabowo’s defense policies are now seen as an opportunity for Indonesia to strengthen its security ties with Western powers, particularly as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the region.
The relationship between Indonesia and Australia is another area to watch. Both nations signed a historic defense cooperation agreement in 2024, but Prabowo’s broader foreign policy vision may challenge Australia’s close alignment with the U.S. through the AUKUS pact. This trilateral security arrangement commits Australia to deeper cooperation with the U.S. and the U.K. in the Asia Pacific, which could create tensions with Indonesia’s independent foreign policy stance.
Experts like Ian Wilson suggest that Australia’s commitment to AUKUS could complicate its relationship with Indonesia, which seeks to maintain a balanced approach to major powers, neither fully aligning with China nor the U.S. The evolving dynamics between these two countries will be key to understanding Indonesia’s position in the region under Prabowo’s leadership.
