As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, Taiwan faces a complex and uncertain situation. The island is under increasing military pressure from China while dealing with ambiguity about how Trump might handle U.S.-Taiwan relations.
His selection of China hawks like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz for key positions suggests a tough stance toward Beijing, yet his campaign rhetoric has left many questions unanswered about his specific approach to Taiwan. This mix of signals has prompted cautious concern among analysts and officials in Taipei.
During the campaign, Trump made comments about Taiwan that were both provocative and unclear. He suggested that Taiwan should compensate the U.S. for its defense commitments and warned of harsh economic measures against China if it moved against the island.
However, he avoided committing to direct military support for Taiwan, instead emphasizing his relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. These statements have raised concerns in Taiwan about whether Trump might prioritize U.S. interests over maintaining longstanding commitments to Taipei.
Reactions in Taiwan reflect a mix of unease and cautious optimism. Some residents express concern that Trump’s unpredictability and focus on U.S. interests could disrupt the delicate balance of relations. Others trust in the strong bipartisan support for Taiwan within the U.S. Congress, which they see as a critical safeguard against major shifts in policy. Experts believe this institutional backing, along with the foreign policy experience of Trump’s potential Cabinet members, could help maintain stability in U.S.-Taiwan relations.
Taiwan Faces Uncertainty Amid China’s Pressure and Trump’s Ambiguous Stance on U.S.-Taiwan Relations
To strengthen ties with Washington, Taiwan has intensified its outreach efforts. President Lai Ching-te has engaged with key Republican leaders, such as House Speaker Mike Johnson, during overseas visits, while senior Taiwanese security officials have met with Trump’s transition team to establish connections. These efforts signal Taiwan’s determination to ensure that the partnership with the U.S. remains strong despite the uncertainties surrounding Trump’s return to power.
At the same time, China has escalated its military activities around Taiwan, conducting large-scale exercises and deploying unprecedented numbers of naval and coast guard vessels near the island. These actions, combined with gray zone tactics like sending oversized coast guard ships near Taiwan’s outlying islands, present serious challenges. Taiwan’s ability to respond is hindered by the disparity between its smaller coast guard fleet and the more powerful Chinese vessels, which are often the size of warships.
In response to these pressures, Taiwan has bolstered its defense efforts, increasing its budget to a record high for 2025 and incorporating more realistic combat drills into military exercises. The government has also taken steps to improve civil defense capabilities, although internal resistance and political opposition have slowed progress. Taiwan’s future strategy and Beijing’s assessment of Trump’s policies will shape how the situation evolves in the coming months.
