As Donald Trump prepares for a second presidential term, there are various positive developments in the U.S. that he will likely try to claim credit for, including low unemployment, low inflation, cheap gas, and a strong stock market. However, one notable trend that he is unlikely to take credit for is the dramatic decline in crime, especially homicides, since the peak during the pandemic in 2020. While Trump may avoid acknowledging this progress, it’s important to recognize this as a positive development that benefits the country.
Trump’s focus on fear-mongering about crime, particularly in urban areas, has been a consistent theme throughout his political career. He has frequently painted cities as violent and dangerous, often using rhetoric that fosters division and anxiety. In his inaugural address in 2017, he described the U.S. as suffering from “American carnage” and vowed to end it. Despite his constant talk about increasing violence, Trump never took credit for making America safer during his presidency, even as crime rates fluctuated.
Crime Decline Challenges Trump’s Narrative as U.S. Sees Lowest Homicide Rates in Years
Despite Trump’s narrative, recent crime statistics show a significant decline in violent crime. Cities like Boston and San Francisco have seen a reduction in homicides to their lowest levels in decades, and Detroit’s homicide rate is also at its lowest in years. The FBI’s latest quarterly report shows a 10% decrease in violent crime, with Washington, D.C., experiencing a 30-year low. While not all crime categories have improved, the overall trend points to a reversal of the pandemic-era crime spike, which is a positive development for the country.
This decline in crime is a setback for Trump, who has built much of his political appeal on sowing fear about crime, particularly in cities governed by Democrats. He has successfully convinced his supporters, especially in rural and small-town areas, that cities are dangerous, and this fear has fueled much of his base’s political motivation. As crime decreases, it becomes harder for Trump to maintain this narrative of urban chaos. However, there is an opportunity for Democrats to capitalize on this shift and highlight the cities and policies that have been successful in reducing crime.
The challenge for Democrats is that they have generally avoided discussing crime, fearing accusations of being “soft on crime.” However, if they wish to counter Trump’s narrative, they must speak out about the policies and cities that have successfully reduced crime. Trump’s media dominance and persuasive tactics may seem formidable, but his influence can be mitigated through a focused public discussion on the real trends in crime, leading to a debate that could result in more effective crime policies. This would not only challenge Trump’s narrative but also help create a more informed public discussion on public safety.
