French President Emmanuel Macron faces a critical juncture following the legislative election’s first round, where his centrist bloc trailed the surging far-right. Analysts predict diminished influence for Macron, particularly in defense and foreign affairs, areas where he has been pivotal, including support for Ukraine against Russia.
The upcoming second round appears unlikely to strengthen Macron, as his bloc is poised to lose its previous majority. This outcome could lead to a fragmented parliament, potentially weakening the prime minister’s ability to challenge Macron’s constitutional powers, yet also risking a more inward-focused France.
Alternatively, a worst-case scenario involves a far-right victory, potentially installing Jordan Bardella as prime minister in a challenging power-sharing dynamic with Macron. Bardella and Marine Le Pen aim to curtail Macron’s influence, particularly in defense and foreign policy, advocating against aggressive measures toward Russia.
Macron Faces Uncertain Future Amidst Far-Right Surge and Legislative Challenges
The French Constitution ambiguously defines roles in such scenarios, leaving room for conflict between the president’s role as commander-in-chief and the prime minister’s responsibility for defense. Disagreements could paralyze decision-making, especially concerning military deployments and strategic decisions.
Previous power-sharing instances in France haven’t featured such stark political divides between president and prime minister. The prospect of such a setup raises unprecedented challenges, particularly in maintaining military cohesion and international commitments.
France’s nuclear deterrent, under the president’s control, remains a pivotal issue. However, operational decisions could face delays or complications under a power-sharing arrangement, affecting France’s global military engagements and alliances.
In the event of a coalition government, consensus-building on critical foreign policy issues, such as increased support for Ukraine, may prove arduous, potentially sidelining divisive issues.
Macron’s potential loss of legislative control threatens his ability to assert decisive foreign policy initiatives, contrasting with France’s traditionally presidential approach to global affairs.
