President Biden’s stepping out of the election has allowed him to focus more on achieving a cease-fire in the Middle East and negotiating the return of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.
However, the impact of his new status as a lame-duck president on his leverage with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leaders remains uncertain. Some believe it might reduce his influence, while others think it could strengthen his position since he’s no longer concerned with reelection.
Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.), a senior House Foreign Affairs Committee member, described the situation as a “double-edged sword,” noting that while Biden’s influence might diminish, he is now free from the constraints of campaign politics.
Pres. Joe Biden enjoys strong policy alignment with Vice President Harris
Parties involved in the Middle East negotiations, including Palestinians and Arab partners, will want assurances that any agreements made under Biden will not be reversed if former President Trump wins the upcoming election.
Biden emphasized his commitment to ending the war in Gaza, securing the return of hostages, and bringing peace to the region. Of the 115 hostages held by Hamas, eight are Americans, though it’s unclear how many are still alive. Hamas uses the bodies of hostages as leverage in negotiations.
The U.S. is leading intensive efforts to broker a cease-fire and secure the release of hostages, with a senior administration official predicting progress soon. Netanyahu, who prefers Trump in the White House, has been accused of stalling cease-fire negotiations to maintain his position as prime minister.
Far-right party members have threatened to collapse his government if a deal is signed. Nonetheless, the White House does not currently see Netanyahu as an obstacle.
Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, highlighted the critical role of Hamas’s Gaza chief, Yahya Sinwar, in the negotiations. Sinwar, believed to be hiding in Gaza’s tunnels, faces internal pressure to agree to a cease-fire.
Reports suggest Sinwar’s military commanders are urging him to agree to a deal, though al-Omari, a former senior Palestinian negotiator, views these reports as speculative. The U.S. holds unique influence, as demonstrated when Hamas first released two American hostages in October as a gesture for broader negotiations.
Biden enjoys strong policy alignment with Vice President Harris, the likely Democratic nominee and even Trump has called for the immediate release of hostages and an end to Israel’s war. Trump emphasized the need for a swift resolution, criticizing the prolonged conflict.
Historically, lame-duck presidents have achieved policies related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, such as President Reagan’s dialogue with the Palestine Liberation Organization and President Clinton’s parameters for peace talks.
Biden aims to broker a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and eventually establish ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, building on the Trump administration’s Abraham Accords.
Netanyahu’s rejection of a Palestinian state, shared by many in his government, complicates the potential for peace with Saudi Arabia. Al-Omari suggests Biden could challenge Netanyahu to commit to a Palestinian state, laying the groundwork for a huge development in Middle East history.
With the Israeli Knesset entering a three-month summer recess, Netanyahu might agree to a cease-fire without risking his coalition. Aaron David Miller and Adam Israelevitz from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted that a Knesset recess could protect Netanyahu from a no-confidence vote by right-wing coalition partners.
Netanyahu’s position could shift based on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, aligning Israeli and U.S. political timelines. Saudi Arabia’s willingness to normalize ties with Israel depends on the U.S. signing a mutual defense pact, which is more likely to gain Senate approval under Biden than a potential Trump administration.
Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, believes a mutual defense pact is achievable, contingent on stability in the Middle East. The timeline for peace could influence legislative progress, with potential advancements this year if conditions are favorable.
