Polling data reveals a close contest in Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) faces a challenging race as former President Trump maintains a lead over Vice President Harris in the state.
Recent figures from an Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey show Trump-backed Republican Tim Sheehy leading Tester by two percentage points, 48 to 46 percent. With 5 percent of voters still undecided, the race remains extremely tight.
Montana Senate Race Tightens as Tim Sheehy Edges Out Jon Tester by Two Points
Tester, one of the most endangered incumbents this election cycle, represents a rare Democratic seat in a state won by Trump in 2020. His performance in this race will be pivotal in determining which party controls the Senate.
The latest poll indicates a shift from March, when Tester held a two-point advantage over Sheehy. The current figures fall within the poll’s 3-point margin of error, highlighting the close nature of the contest.
“The decrease in undecided voters from 14% to 5% as the election nears has benefited Sheehy, who has gained six points in support, while Tester’s backing has only risen by two points,” noted Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
To bolster his position, Tester has introduced a “Republicans for Tester” initiative, aiming to gain bipartisan support for the upcoming election. At the top of the ticket, Trump holds a 15-point lead over Harris, though the vice president’s support has increased by 5 points from March, reaching 40 percent.
Trump is favored by 55 percent of Montana voters, with 5 percent still undecided. Harris has seen gains among women voters and college graduates compared to Biden’s performance earlier in the year. If undecided voters lean toward one candidate, Trump’s support rises to 58 percent, with Harris at 43 percent.
However, the presence of third-party candidates diminishes Harris’s support, with Trump securing 54 percent and Harris 39 percent. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. draws 5 percent, and 3 percent remain undecided. The poll was conducted from August 5-6 with a sample of 1,000 likely voters in Montana and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
