Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

Politics

Can We Trust the Polls as Harris Catches Up After a Predicted Trump ‘Landslide’?

VP of the United States, Harris

Before Kamala Harris became the Democrats’ presumptive presidential nominee, discussions of a possible “landslide” victory for Donald Trump, though unlikely, were gaining traction. Surprisingly, current polls now show Harris leading. How did this shift happen?

One factor to consider is the absence of a true landslide in U.S. presidential elections since 1984, when Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale by an overwhelming margin, winning 49 states. Reagan’s 18-point popular vote lead remains the last election decided by more than 10 points, a benchmark for a “landslide.”

Donald Trump

Former President of the US, Donald Trump

While elections have been closer over the past 40 years, analyzing Reagan’s victory highlights the ongoing challenges pollsters face, especially when many voters remain undecided. Even in 1984, polls were not entirely accurate; some overstated or understated Reagan’s support, although they correctly predicted his win.

As Mondale’s campaign wound down in 1984, he dismissed polls showing him far behind, likening his situation to the infamous 1948 polling error where everyone expected Thomas E. Dewey to defeat President Harry Truman. Mondale even replicated Truman’s iconic moment of holding up a newspaper that prematurely declared Dewey the winner, emphasizing that voters, not polls, determine elections.

Despite Mondale’s confident rhetoric, the polls’ all in all message was clear—Reagan was set to win. However, the degree of his victory varied across polls, with some underestimating his support by huge margins.

This discrepancy underscores the persistent uncertainty pollsters face, particularly with late-deciding voters, a factor that played a crucial role in Trump’s 2016 victory in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Click to comment
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

We’re dedicated to providing you the most authenticated news. We’re working to turn our passion for the political industry into a booming online news portal.

You May Also Like

News

Spoilers! The demon Akaza from Kimetsu no Yaiba dies in the eleventh arc of the manga and the one responsible for his death is...

News

In the fiscal year 2022-23, Pakistan’s National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) granted a total of 1,596 net-metering licenses nationwide, collectively amounting to 221.05...

Entertainment

Actress Emma D’Arcy is from the British rebellion. She has only appeared in a small number of movies and TV shows. It might be...

Entertainment

Jennifer Coolidge Is Pregnant: Jennifer Coolidge Audrey Coolidge is a comedian and actress from the United States. Many of her followers are wondering if...