Nicolás Maduro is demonstrating a firm stance. His National Electoral Commission, which declared him the victor in the July 28 Venezuelan presidential election, has withheld tally sheets, which many believe would reveal a serious defeat for him.
In response to growing dissent, Maduro has initiated a wave of arrests. Opposition figures, including Edmundo Gonzáles Urrutia and María Corina Machado, the influential leader behind the electoral campaign, are now in hiding. Despite international condemnation and pressure to adhere to democratic norms, Maduro remains defiant, pledging to use an “iron fist” against his adversaries.
Protests against Maduro face harsh repression from security forces, echoing past violent clashes like the Caracazo riots
Maduro’s unyielding position is largely due to his control over key resources. Although Venezuela’s oil production has dwindled to less than a third of its previous output, the oil industry still generates sufficient revenue to sustain the military and security forces, even as the broader economy struggles.
The regime also benefits from its alliance with Cuba, which provides crucial intelligence and training support. This partnership helps Maduro monitor internal threats, particularly within the military.
However, Maduro’s administration maintains its revolutionary image, positioning itself as a defender against American imperialism, while relying on the support of Russia and China. These alliances offer some reassurance, even if their assistance is limited in times of crisis.
Diplomatic initiatives led by Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia are pushing for the release of the tally sheets, which could expose electoral fraud and prompt negotiations. However, visible progress remains elusive.
The U.S. might consider reinstating sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector, but such a move could disrupt global oil markets and might not effectively destabilize the regime. The opposition’s primary strategy is to sustain street protests, reflecting the Venezuelan people’s demand for change.
Protests, however, face severe challenges from the National Guard, SEBIN, and the regime’s “colectivos.” The risk of violence is high, with past events like the 2002 Puente Llaguno massacre and the 1989 Caracazo riots highlighting the potential for deadly clashes.
Sustained protests might eventually strain security forces, potentially forcing Maduro to rely on the army. The crucial uncertainty is how the military would respond to orders against civilians. Eventually, the Venezuelan people will need to decide if they are prepared to test this possibility, guided by Simon Bolivar’s maxim: “Cursed be the soldier who aims his weapon against the people.”
