The battle for control of the House is expected to hinge on a rematch in Washington state, where Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) faces off against Trump-endorsed Republican Joe Kent. This race is particularly crucial since the district favored Trump in the 2020 election.
Gluesenkamp Perez stunned many with her victory over Kent in the midterms, flipping Washington’s traditionally red 3rd Congressional District. She now seeks to defend her seat as the Democratic Party aims to secure a majority in the House.
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez faces Trump-endorsed Joe Kent in a crucial Washington state race for House control
Political analyst Mark Stephan from Washington State University described the upcoming race as a potential “nailbiter,” given the close results in last week’s primary. “A dozen to two dozen races nationwide will determine House control,” he said. “From the party’s perspective, Gluesenkamp Perez’s victory is essential.”
Initially a political newcomer, Gluesenkamp Perez, formerly an auto shop co-owner, and Kent, a retired Green Beret with Trump’s backing, ousted the long-serving Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) during the midterms. Herrera Beutler was one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump following the Capitol riots.
With Gluesenkamp Perez now running in a district won by Trump in 2020, she is among a few Democrats seeking reelection in such areas. The southwest Washington district remains conservative but not overwhelmingly so, according to Stephan, who also noted the district’s unpredictable nature.
Decision Desk HQ categorizes the seat as “lean Republican,” while the Cook Political Report views it as a toss-up. The district, which includes Vancouver and stretches toward the Pacific coast, saw Gluesenkamp Perez lead Kent by 46% to 39% in last week’s primary, with another Republican, Leslie Lewallen, securing 12%.
The race mirrors the 2022 contest, with Kent again highlighting his Trump endorsement and Gluesenkamp Perez emphasizing her representation of working-class constituents across party lines. John Wyble, a Democratic consultant, noted that the competition is intensifying as both candidates refine their strategies.
Gluesenkamp Perez has faced criticism from within her party for her stances on issues like Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan and weapon shipments to Israel. Meanwhile, Kent has tried to associate her with progressive policies and the Biden administration’s record.
To sail across thorny politics, Gluesenkamp Perez distanced herself from Biden’s nomination early on and has kept Vice President Harris at a distance. Political strategist Ben Anderstone suggested that she might need to appeal to some Trump supporters to win, though Harris’s influence might lessen the distance she can keep.
GOP consultant Alex Hays expressed doubt about whether Gluesenkamp Perez’s efforts to present herself as a distinct type of Democrat would sway voters, noting that many Republicans might not shift their support.
A forecast from Decision Desk HQ gives Kent a 68% chance of winning, though a July poll showed a tight race. Ron Dotzauer, a political analyst, believes Gluesenkamp Perez remains in a strong position, citing the 12% vote for Lewallen as a potential protest against Kent.
Strategists anticipate a close contest, with Anderstone commenting that the race’s competitiveness is a strong indicator of a fiercely contested battle in November.
