The Biden administration’s early support for Ukraine in military, political, and financial aspects prevented it from being overrun by Russia. However, since November 2022, the conflict has reached a stalemate that disadvantages Ukraine. If Kamala Harris is elected, she should prioritize turning this brutal war of attrition into a Ukrainian victory. Ukraine’s unexpected offensive in Russia’s Kursk region may mark the beginning of a more favorable outcome.
Ukraine’s objectives are straightforward: to regain full territorial integrity, enable the return of displaced citizens, including children kidnapped by Russia, and secure compensation for the damage caused by Russia. On the other hand, the United States lacks a clear strategy.
The Biden administration’s vague commitment to supporting Ukraine “for as long as it takes” contrasts with Donald Trump’s promise to end the war swiftly, suggesting a potential capitulation to the Kremlin.
For Harris, the war in Ukraine could become a defining success
This deadlock presents Harris with a strategic opportunity.
With a huge majority of Americans backing Ukraine, and Harris having met President Zelensky multiple times and leading the US delegation to the Ukraine Peace Summit, she is well-positioned to make Ukraine a central issue in her presidency. As president, she could shift the war’s trajectory and make it one of her key successes.
Achieving this would require a well-defined strategy and sufficient resources.
The Biden administration’s policy, likely shaped by National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, has been to defend Ukraine without provoking Putin, driven by fears of nuclear escalation or World War III. However, these concerns have led to the creation of imaginary Russian red lines, offering Russia sanctuary from Ukrainian attacks. Given that Putin is unlikely to risk a nuclear war, this policy is fundamentally flawed.
Another critical weakness is the absence of a clear goal. The focus should be on providing Ukraine with adequate support to secure victory over Russia. Harris needs to appoint a national security adviser who fully supports this objective. Ukraine is fighting bravely on its own without asking for foreign troops but requires powerful weapons, permission to target Russian bases, and sufficient financial backing from the West.
In 2023, Ukraine received about $100 billion in aid, half of which was military assistance. Although important, this amount is insufficient to shift the war’s balance. For Ukraine to achieve outright victory, it would likely need $150 billion annually, with military aid doubling to $100 billion. This support could lead to a swift victory, reducing long-term costs and alleviating Ukrainian suffering.
The source of such funding is clear.
The West has frozen $280 billion in Russian reserves, most of which are held in Belgium’s Euroclear system. The US Congress has passed legislation authorizing the seizure of these assets, urging the European Union to follow suit. However, the EU, particularly France and Germany, has resisted this move.
This European hesitation is unjustifiable. Russia, which violates international law daily, cannot reasonably expect its protection. The EU must join the US in adopting legislation to seize Russian assets and use them to support Ukraine.
Although only about $5 billion of these assets have been located in the US, seizing this money and sending it to Ukraine would set a precedent for European action. In June, the US persuaded G7 members to lend Ukraine $50 billion from future yields on frozen Russian funds, but Ukraine needs immediate funding to defeat Russia.
The US, UK, and Canada have been Ukraine’s main military supporters since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Initially hesitant to provide advanced weapons, fearing they might fall into Russian hands, these concerns were allayed by mid-2022. The US has had ample opportunity to supply Ukraine with the necessary weapons to repel Russian forces.
Without American leadership, little progress can be made. The US dominates global arms production and exports, while European countries lack sufficient military resources to shift the war’s balance.
Finally, the most illogical aspect of America’s Ukraine policy is the ban on using US-supplied weapons to strike Russian bases from which Ukraine is being attacked. This restriction contradicts the self-defense rights in the UN Charter and should be immediately lifted.
For Harris, the war in Ukraine could become a defining success, but she must address Biden’s missteps and ensure Ukraine receives the additional resources it needs to defeat Russia. By seizing Russian assets and convincing US allies to do the same, she can help secure Ukraine’s victory without increasing the financial burden on American taxpayers.
