Nearly 50 decades ago, an obscure figure from San Francisco, Harvey Milk, announced his candidacy for the Board of Supervisors. As an openly gay man in an era when such visibility was fraught with danger, Milk used his campaign launch to urge his audience, many of whom were also marginalized and fearful, to move beyond their fears and embrace hope.
Reflecting on the Democratic National Convention Tuesday night, I was struck by how Michelle Obama’s speech echoed Milk’s message. In her stirring address, she declared, “America, hope is making a comeback.” Democrats are pinning their hopes on this assertion.
Obama began her speech by honoring her late mother, framing her life as emblematic of a “striving sense of hope.” She described a palpable sense of optimism, saying, “There’s something wonderfully magical in the air, isn’t there?” and emphasized that this hope was not only felt within the convention hall but was spreading nationwide. “You know what I’m talking about? It’s the contagious power of hope!” Obama said.
This encapsulates the core of the Democrats’ strategy for 2024: to shift voters from fear—fear of Donald Trump, his divisive rhetoric, and societal divisions—toward a message of hope. The campaign aims to tap into hope as a collective emotion, one that can galvanize individuals by connecting them to a larger, shared vision. This approach draws parallels to the movement that helped Barack Obama win the presidency in 2008.
However, the effectiveness of this strategy remains uncertain. A Pew survey from September indicated widespread pessimism among Americans about the future, particularly concerning moral and ethical standards, racial equality, and international relations. Additionally, an ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 76 percent of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track.
A Gallup survey from 2022 highlighted diminishing optimism about future generations achieving greater material success than their parents. Racial disparities also influence perceptions of hope: White Americans, who are more aligned with Trump’s agenda, exhibit greater pessimism compared to Black, Hispanic, and Asian Americans, with Black Americans being the most optimistic.
The prevailing culture of fear, which has been a hallmark of Trump’s rhetoric and was also prevalent in Democratic messaging against him, contributes to this pessimism. Trump’s campaign has capitalized on fear, as evidenced by recent inflammatory posts.
Until recently, Democrats also relied on fear to motivate voters, framing Trump as a threat to American democracy. However, this cycle, there’s a noticeable shift. Michelle and Barack Obama’s portrayal of Trump as petty and self-absorbed aims to diminish fear and pave the way for a hopeful vision.
Democrats are betting that this year, voters will be drawn to a candidate who embodies optimism and offers a forward-looking vision. It’s a bet that hopes to resonate despite the broader backdrop of uncertainty.