A recent poll conducted by Emerson College Polling/The Hill reveals that Vice President Harris and New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich hold substantial leads over their Republican opponents in New Mexico, a state where the GOP once saw potential gains when President Biden was still a contender.
The poll, released on Friday, shows Harris leading former President Trump by a margin of 52 percent to 42 percent, with 6 percent of voters still undecided. When third-party candidates are included, Harris’s lead grows to 51 percent, with Trump at 40 percent and 3 percent supporting independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Heinrich leads Domenici by 12 points in the New Mexico Senate race, as voters lean towards Democrats in key races
In the Senate race, Heinrich also maintains a strong advantage, leading Republican Nella Domenici by 49 percent to 37 percent, with 4 percent of voters favoring another candidate and 9 percent undecided.
These results are encouraging for Democrats, especially after a period of concern when Republicans viewed traditionally Democratic states like New Mexico as vulnerable following Biden’s poor debate performance in late June, which led to a decline in his poll numbers.
New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham had previously expressed doubts about Biden’s ability to secure victory in her state during a meeting with Democratic governors, particularly in the wake of the debate. However, the new Emerson poll indicates that New Mexico, along with other states with similar ideological leanings, is trending back towards the Democratic camp.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, noted that Harris’s current lead mirrors the 10.8-point margin by which Biden won New Mexico in 2020. Harris is performing particularly well among independents, leading 48 percent to 37 percent, and among women, where she holds a 55 percent to 38 percent advantage.
The poll highlights the economy as the most pressing issue for voters, with 29 percent citing it as their top concern, followed by crime at 18 percent, and immigration at 13 percent. Although Trump leads among voters who prioritize the economy, crime, and immigration, Harris has a commanding lead among those focused on education, healthcare, housing affordability, threats to democracy, and abortion, averaging 82 percent support compared to Trump’s 15 percent.
Despite Trump’s strong showing among voters who prioritize immigration, Harris edges him out on trust to handle immigration in New Mexico, leading 48 percent to 46 percent.
The poll was conducted from Tuesday through Thursday, surveying 965 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.1 points.
