Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster, suggested that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s support for former President Trump might be a key factor in tipping the scales in crucial swing states for the 2024 election. Luntz noted that while Kennedy’s popularity has waned since Vice President Kamala Harris took the lead on the Democratic ticket, his remaining supporters could still be influential in determining the outcome in battleground states.
During a Friday appearance on NewsNation’s On Balance, Luntz highlighted that Kennedy’s initial support, which peaked at around 14 percent, was largely drawn from voters who otherwise would have supported Joe Biden.
Frank Luntz suggests that RFK Jr.’s endorsement of Trump could impact swing states in the 2024 election
With Biden no longer in the race and Harris now at the forefront, Kennedy’s support has dwindled to about 4 or 5 percent. According to Luntz, the voters who remain might be inclined to back Trump, potentially adding a critical 1 percent to his support in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
A recent poll by the Cook Political Report Swing State Project indicated that Harris either led or was tied with Trump in six out of seven key swing states. The survey showed her with a slight edge over Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Kennedy, who initially ran as a Democrat before switching to an independent bid in October, saw his poll numbers fall from double digits to single digits. On Friday, he suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump, agreeing to withdraw his name from ballots in battleground states to prevent splitting votes. However, he will remain on the ballot in other states.
Luntz also criticized the media’s portrayal of Kennedy, arguing that his endorsement of Trump has overshadowed his contributions. He suggested that had Kennedy endorsed Harris, he might have been seen as a hero. “The media is not giving Kennedy the credit he deserves for his decision to endorse Trump,” Luntz said. He cautioned that understanding the motives of those reporting on the election is crucial in the final days of the campaign.
Further, Luntz contended that if Trump focuses his campaign on issues like immigration and inflation, he could gain an advantage. Conversely, if the election centers on personal attributes and character, Harris might have the edge. “Trump needs to shift his focus from attacking Harris and discussing economic issues to addressing broader concerns about affordability and the working class,” Luntz explained.
